2025 has seen the global economy hold firm, despite headwinds from the US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs and concerns over fiscal dominance and the ability of the Federal Reserve to maintain its independence. Most central banks normalised monetary policy while the AI investment boom helped to support growth.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its target federal funds rate by 25bp at its December policy meeting. Chair Powell acknowledged that risks to both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate — inflation and labour markets — remain. However, we believe some signals from the Fed suggest labour markets are weaker than current data indicates.