All Global articles – Page 96
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papersFiorino: the purpose of pandemic banking
In the latest instalment of Fiorino, our blog focused on deciphering complexity in global financials, we assess the resilience of banks as they prepare to finance businesses during the disruption caused by the pandemic.
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White papersThe Trough is in—Let the Healing Begin
While there is still a long path to recovery, global June flash PMIs confirmed we have passed the trough as contraction eased. The U.S. Employment report will be released next week, and the pressure is on for Britain and Japan to come up with a deal.
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White papersHow the COVID-19 Crisis Validates Sustainable Investing
The economic and market challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic have put investors through a trial by fire this year. Yet the crisis has also validated sustainable investing strategies focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - July 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent developments. We also increase
the probability of our central scenario from 50 to 60% while reducing the likelihood of the upside scenario from 30 to 20%. -
White papersWeekly Investment Update – 24 June 2020
The number of countries lifting their COVID-19 lockdowns is increasing, and sentiment indicators are picking up. Levels of mobility are accelerating. This should help the real economy to spring back at a faster pace than was originally envisaged. Data appears to be bottoming and markets are expecting it to improve at a stronger pace going forward.
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White papersWhy pension funds should consider impact investing
Besides supporting pension funds in achieving their financial goals, impact investing helps them to meet the growing appetite for integrating sustainability into their portfolios.
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White papersThe day after #8 - Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion
In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
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White papersBiden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections. To put Biden’s lead in perspective, no prior candidate or President has seen a lead this large at this point of the race. However, Trump still holds onto slightly favourable ratings on the economy. A game changer could be the Democratic party taking control of the Senate, which appared unlikely early this year.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
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White papersDefaults, disruption and development: Real assets adjust to the new normal
While lockdown measures gradually start to ease, it is still far from business as usual in the real assets sector. Mark Versey explains the impact for investors.
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White papersMarket weekly – What to expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (podcast)
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook is now for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papersAsset allocation – Dealing with ‘lower for longer’
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook now is for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papersThe sustainability of sustainability: green finance during the pandemic
Sustainable finance has been resilient amid the market shock, as a heightened awareness of environmental, social and governance (ESG) behaviours has coincided with a surge of regulatory changes and an uptick in green capital-market activities.
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White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary – Mind the curve
The virus - galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever. The 5-day rolling average, currently at 143k, is 50k higher than in mid-May. Arguably, the numbers today are likely more truthful than in the past, because there is more testing. In a freshly released Focal Point “Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution” (online on 22 June), we advocate basing cases estimates on deaths – a measure less affected by testing issues.
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White papersThe Growth of Private Equity Secondaries
The Global Financial Crisis provided opportunities and growth in the Secondaries market as a means to gain liquidity, but is that the same case today as a result of COVID-19? Or has the investment landscape changed? Guests Tristram Perkins and Benjamin Perl discuss what some of the key differences and similarities might be, along with how the Secondaries market has developed before the pandemic hit, as investors are adjusting to the “new normal” in today’s market.
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Asset Manager NewsProsperity and preservation: the aim of active ownership
The exogeneous shock of the coronavirus pandemic has confirmed the importance of sustainability. We have absolute conviction that we must continue to act as owners of companies and help shape the narrative of the role of sustainability in a post-coronavirus world.
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White papersCOVID-19 and data infrastructure: Will demand translate into profit?
During the initial outbreak of COVID-19, we published a report on the underlying long-term trends supporting data infrastructure. Since then, much about the world as we knew it has changed. Laurence Monnier assesses how many of the trends we identified remain intact and whether the surge in demand for data services and infrastructure will translate into investment opportunities.
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White papers2020 Global Strategy Perspective
As we start the third decade of the 21st century, it is an opportune time to take stock of real estate markets around the world. Despite the aftershocks of the global financial crisis, most investors have taken advantage of real estate opportunities outside their home markets. At AEW we have been working with international investors for nearly 40 years. In this report, we share our perspective on global investment markets, considering both global trends and occupier market trends.
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White papersWhat Happens After Listed Real Estate Falls?
It has been a month since the high watermark for listed real estate securities and other equities, and a week since the dam broke. Listed real estate has suffered even more than the broad market, especially in the past few days as public life began to shut down in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. Hotels are empty, many malls and restaurants are shuttered, and most of us are working out of our homes rather than at our offices. Even after the March 24 rally, both U.S. and global listed real estate markets are down roughly 40% from their February peaks.
