All Global articles – Page 102
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White papersEconomic and Real Estate Outlook in Context of Covid-19 #4
The global economy is slowly preparing to move out of phase 1 (lockdown) towards staggered re opening of key businesses with an emphasis on social distancing measures. The extent of damage to the economy will continue to be tabulated in the coming weeks, but the estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is real U.S. GDP decreased a whopping 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 following a 2.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2019.
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White papersThe day after #1 Covid-19 the invisible hand pointing investors down the road to the 70s
Without a doubt, the Covid-19 pandemic is shaking the financial industry like never before. But this is not the first time the world has faced a pandemic of this scale, nor is it the first time that public policymakers, business leaders and pundits have asked: “Is it different this time around? Are we at a turning point?”.
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White papersWill Covid-19 prove a pivotal moment for climate change?
Policymakers should use the current crisis to inject similar urgency into climate policy and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
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White papersImpact investing: Choice precedes fate
The temporary lockdown of half of the world’s population has yielded some remarkable imagery. You may have seen satellite pictures showing a significant reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. Natural environments appear to be enjoying some respite.
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White papersThe coronavirus and our relationship with nature
The coronavirus crisis has highlighted the importance of sustainability-focused risk management and effective stewardship activities. In this series of articles, we will explore the links between infectious diseases, environmental issues and social sustainability, alongside the role of investors and companies. In part one, Sonya Likhtman looks at how the destruction of ecosystems can increase the risk of pandemics.
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White papersRecalibrating the rulebook: 360°, Q2 2020
What is our current view of fixed-income markets? And where do we see the best relative value? In our latest edition of 360°, Andrew ‘Jacko’ Jackson, Head of Fixed Income, and his team of specialist investors considers the areas that have the potential to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
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White papersCredit: Industry Insights
As we navigate the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the fixed-income market, we have launched a weekly video to highlight the latest industry insights from our credit analysts.
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White papersAdventures on the Planet of the Apes: Navigating the Low-Rate Environment
Artificially low rates are causing multiple distortions and pockets of heightened risks—and while the current environment may be unprecedented, it need not be incomprehensible. Investors who understand the dynamics driving low rates may be positioned to take advantage of promising opportunities.
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White papersMarket weekly – Fixed income: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now
After a rollercoaster ride in April, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss what will matter next for developed bond markets.
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White papersCanary in the Coal Mine
The credit market has lagged while equities have rallied—is it warning investors not to get carried away?
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White papersThe Pandemic & The “Thucydides Trap”
Tensions may not necessarily escalate after the Great Lockdown.
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White papersHow to Invest in Equities When Guidance Disappears
The COVID-19 shutdown has prompted an unprecedented number of US companies to suspend earnings guidance. Equity investors should focus fundamental research on a wider range of outcomes instead of the overly precise game of predicting short-term estimates—especially during a period of heightened uncertainty.
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White papersCrisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update)
Our crisis dashboard includes signals from three areas: 1) public health, 2) the consumer sector and 3) financial markets. By pulling big data from traditional sources (earnings growth and gross domestic product, for example) and nontraditional sources (like Google Trends and Glassdoor), we can create a better mosaic of the road back. Public health, of course, is the key: until there’s a vaccine, the cascading impact of the virus may continue.
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White papersPrivate Equity Perspectives “Moving from Defense to Offense”
David Stonberg, Global Co-Head of Private Equity Co-Investments, provides an update on the private equity market and discusses deal activity in the Co-Investment space.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - May 2020
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; the H2 recovery is being shaped by the duration of the crisis and the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts. Since the start of April, both hard and soft data have begun to show the impact on the economy. In one month, the crisis has erased almost the number of jobs added since the GFC, and unemployment moved up sharply to 4.4% from 3.5% one month earlier. Sentiment plunged across business lines, especially in service and consumer sectors. Retail sales fell the most since 1992. Inflation moderated in March.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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White papersThe Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap
In our previous paper on the impact of rapidly growing budget deficits in Japan, Western Europe and the US, we examined the relationship between debt levels and the short and long-term interest rates over time for 12 developed economies.
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White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
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White papersPublic Engagement Report Q1 2020
The Public Engagement Report highlights some of the stewardship activities undertaken by EOS at Federated Hermes on behalf of its clients over Q1 2020.
