Amundi Asset Management

2018 Top 400 ranking: 9http://www.amundi.com

Request More Information

Amundi

Global Investment Views: December 2018

This year has proven to be challenging for portfolio construction, as well as regarding returns. To put this into perspective, for 2009-17, our analysis shows that each year, on average, 76% of major asset classes (including different regional government bonds, equity, inflation-linked, currency and commodities) recorded positive performances. 

In 2018, the story has changed: we are heading towards an unprecedented year in which less than 20%of asset classes have been in positive territory*. Markets have started to price in a slowdown in global growth and tighter liquidity conditions, in a more complex than expected political environment (trade tariffs and populism). Vulnerabilities in the more stretched areas of the market (growth stocks in equities and credit markets) and idiosyncratic stories (Argentina, Turkey, Italy) are the main consequences of this new narrative.

Moving into 2019, Central Bank policy will be crucial again with regard to determining market sentiment. Given a potential slowdown in growth and weak financial conditions, a Fed shying away from further tightening would give new oxygen to the markets. Also, the ECB will likely be increasingly uncomfortable with raising rates in such a scenario. In the meantime, the risk of policy mistakes will remain high: How far can Trump trade policy go? What could the implications for input prices and corporate margins be? Can China growth hold on? These are all elements that could fuel volatility, but also lead to an opening up of opportunities in the market.

Read the complete white paper at the link beneath Related Links

Head Office
90, boulevard Pasteur
Paris
75015
France
Company website:
http://www.amundi.com
Year Founded:
2010
No. of investment offices worldwide:
6

Browse this manager's…

What’s new

  • China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

    China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations

    White papersThu, 7 Feb 2019

    The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round.

  • cross asset investment strategy february 2019

    Cross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2019

    White papersFri, 1 Feb 2019

    After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an increased optimism on trade negotiations. As the current reasons for optimism should be confirmed, we believe it is time to re-approach the areas of risk assets where the correction has brought value back, especially in emerging markets.

  • is turkey really out of the woods

    Cross-Asset Investment Strategy: Is Turkey really out of the woods?

    White papersFri, 1 Feb 2019

    After having narrowly escaped a balance of payments crisis last spring, there are questions surrounding the Turkish economy, not to mention the many (geo)political tensions. Throughout this period, the currency has continued to experience strong downward pressures, leading to a surge in inflation. Recently, the markets seem to be recovering hope.

  • investing in the low carbon economy

    Investing in the Low-Carbon Economy

    White papersFri, 1 Feb 2019

    Private capital has never been given such an important role in tackling climate change and de- carbonising the economy. As Philippe Le Houérou, CEO of International Finance Corporation (IFC), says, the private sector “holds the key,” noting that it “has the innovation, the financing and the tools.

  • time to increase risk exposure

    Time to increase risk exposure: start with emerging markets and credit

    White papersTue, 29 Jan 2019

    The excess of pessimism at the end of 2018 resulted in a sharp decline in financial markets and renewed volatility. According to our analysis, market participants priced in twice the slowdown risk that economic fundamentals justified.

Search all our content