Content (733)

  • Upheaval in the global FX regime

    White papers

    Upheaval in the global FX regime

    2022-09-30T11:57:00Z

    The global FX regime of the last 20 years has been characterised by a distinct pattern of capital flows. At its core, Asian countries (mostly China) recycled their current account surpluses into USD-denominated FX reserves, in order to weaken their domestic currencies and preserve export-led economic models.

  • Global foreign exchange regime faces winds of change

    White papers

    Global foreign exchange regime faces winds of change

    2022-09-30T11:55:00Z

    Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed economies like Japan and Britain. A short-term fix could be a Plaza-style accord to weaken the dollar. Reverse FX wars, with a race to strengthen currencies, are another possibility. Longer-term, momentum may grow for a multi-polar currency regime that pits China ...

  • Time to refocus on bonds - Rethinking portfolios after the great repricing

    White papers

    Time to refocus on bonds - Rethinking portfolios after the great repricing

    2022-09-28T11:39:00Z

    Inflation has risen to levels not seen in 40 years, leading to a repricing of financial markets this year, which has been particularly severe in the fixed income space. Central Banks have already started to hike rates and turn to the hawkish side to avoid de-anchoring inflation expectations. The era of low or even negative interest rates is over. 

  • UK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies

    White papers

    UK market turmoil points towards further volatility in global currencies

    2022-09-28T11:37:00Z

    Investors’ focus is shifting from the poor growth/inflation mix to the extremely negative external balance picture in the UK. Last Friday (23/09), the government announced an additional 0.5% of GDP in unfunded tax cuts and the reaction of UK assets recalled actions we used to see only in emerging markets. 

  • Italy election- no major surprise from the polls, maybe positive for markets

    White papers

    Italy election: no major surprise from the polls, maybe positive for markets

    2022-09-27T15:38:00Z

    Election outcome and political scenario: The centre-right coalition won Italy’s general election on 25 September, with approximately 44% of votes. Overall, we believe that Italy’s general election offered no major surprises and at the margin, the news flow is positive, as the centre-right collation will not have a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which would have allowed it to vote for constitutional amendments.

  • rc-2022.09-fed-meeting-slider

    White papers

    20-21 September FOMC meeting: the move into restrictive territory

    2022-09-23T14:50:00Z

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and statement: On 21 September, the Fed hiked the Fed funds rate by 75bp, to 3-3.25%, the third consecutive 75bp rate hike, and the fifth rate increase in 2022. This means the central bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points this year, clearly prioritising its aim to tame inflation even if it means damaging economic growth.

  • 2022.07 - 296.working-paper -visuel référent

    White papers

    Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

    2022-09-22T13:26:00Z

    This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account.

  • Altruism or Self-Interest? ESG and Participation in Employee Share Plans

    White papers

    Altruism or Self-Interest? ESG and Participation in Employee Share Plans

    2022-09-19T15:27:00Z

    We ask how the ESG performance of firms affects the asset allocation of a large sample of French employees between their employer’s stock and alternative investments in firm sponsored savings plans. After ESG incidents, employees are less likely to invest and they invest smaller amounts in their company’s stock.  

  • ECB meeting- bold rate hike; watch out for more to come

    White papers

    ECB meeting: bold rate hike; watch out for more to come

    2022-09-13T08:45:00Z

    What is your take on the September ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?

  • Reassessing the view on Europe- hot questions for investors

    White papers

    Reassessing the view on Europe: hot questions for investors

    2022-09-13T08:42:00Z

    Is stagflation a highly likely scenario, or will the European economy enter a recession this year? How will governments respond? 

  • Amundi - Macroeconomic April 2022

    White papers

    Macroeconomic Picture - September 2022

    2022-09-12T11:55:00Z

    United States: The H1 contraction will be followed by a protracted period of sub-par growth, but the ongoing deceleration is so far not yet due to Fed tightening; cracks are appearing in an apparently strong labour market, and we expect the lack of productivity to cause a labour market correction. 

  • Amundi-marketscenarios

    White papers

    Market Scenarios and Risks - September 2022

    2022-09-12T11:51:00Z

    We have reviewed the content and probabilities of our scenarios. First of all, we have included in our central scenario some of the risks that are materialising (e.g. stagflation in Europe) and that were previously included in our downside scenario.