Content (381)

  • Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

    White papers

    Asset Class Return Forecasts - Q3 - 2020

    2020-08-10T13:57:00Z

    All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating analysis of key driving factors, confirms last quarter’s future sequence of macro-financial regimes1 registering some slight fine tuning in terms of recovery forecasts coherent with the macro picture taking shape.

  • Investing in the first in, first out theme - opportunities in Asia

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    Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

    2020-08-07T15:20:00Z

    The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the pandemic and supported by fiscal and monetary actions. Strong fundamentals pave the way for a strong catch-up in Asia, driven by China.

  • Global Investment Views – August 2020

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    Global Investment Views – August 2020

    2020-07-29T11:27:00Z

    As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear(risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies reopening). The big question for investors now is: where do we go from here?

  • The Case for US Equities in Global Portfolios

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    The Case for US Equities in Global Portfolios

    2020-07-27T15:35:00Z

    The post-pandemic market reality accentuates the attractiveness of the US stock market. Similar to the period after the Great Financial Crisis, we believe the medium-to-long-term landscape once again favors companies with records of large-cap secular growth, stability and defensiveness. These characteristics define a much higher proportion of the US market relative to the rest of the world resulting in what we believe may be a more optimistic outlook for US equities.

  • EU agreement - a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing

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    EU agreement: a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing

    2020-07-22T10:28:00Z

    The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history to mobile a comprehensive package of €1 824 bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument – is a significant achievement and a net positive in the short term for EU assets.

  • The day after #10 - Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research - what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis

    White papers

    The day after #10 - Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research: what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis

    2020-07-20T11:12:00Z

    Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape.

  • Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

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    Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

    2020-07-15T13:29:00Z

    US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging for Euro-based investors is much lower than in the recent past. Furthermore, we expect this cost will remain low.

  • Time to play a cyclical recovery in European equity

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    Time to play a cyclical recovery in European equity

    2020-07-10T15:58:00Z

    Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe. Easing geopolitical risk and the prospect of massive fiscal resources (national and EU-wide) and monetary support could support a recovery in 2021. The improved sentiment could benefit European assets, equities in particular, that have been a laggard due to the pandemic. This could lead to a catch up of EU equities in relative terms vs other markets.

  • ECB QE Monitor – June 2020

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    ECB QE Monitor – June 2020

    2020-07-08T15:54:00Z

    ECB strengthened its intention to make its action long-term: The ECB revised its medium-term inflation target substantially on the downside . Core inflation is forecast to reach only 0.9% in 2022 (0.8% in 2020, 0.7% in 2021). The ECB justified the adjustment of the size of ...

  • Improving the Robustness of Trading Strategy Backtesting with Boltzmann Machines and Generative Adversarial Networks

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    Improving the Robustness of Trading Strategy Backtesting with Boltzmann Machines and Generative Adversarial Networks

    2020-07-07T15:40:00Z

    In this article, we explore generative models in order to build a market generator. The underlying idea is to simulate artificial multi-dimensional financial time series, whose statistical properties are the same as those observed in the financial markets. In particular, these synthetic data must preserve the first four statistical moments (mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis), the stochastic dependence between the different dimensions (copula structure) and across time (autocorrelation function).

  • The day after #9 - Covid-19 crisis, a catalyst for change and strengthening the EU

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    The day after #9 - Covid-19 crisis, a catalyst for change and strengthening the EU

    2020-07-06T13:05:00Z

    The Conference on the Future of Europe, planned earlier this year, will probably open in September in a very different context than initially expected. Who will chair it and whether a new treaty for the union will be on the agenda remains unclear, but the need to address repositioning Europe post the Covid-19 pandemic is clear.

  • Amundi ‘Super’ ManCo open for business in Ireland

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    Amundi ‘Super’ ManCo open for business in Ireland

    2020-07-01T14:21:00Z

    In May 2020, Amundi, the leading European asset manager, ranking among the top 10 global players1, announced that the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) has authorised Amundi Ireland as a ‘Super’ Management Company allowing it to launch Irish domiciled UCITS and AIF’s for the first time in its 20-year history in the country.