Content (312)

  • South Africa Inflation

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    South Africa Inflation


    South African inflation came out higher in January: 4.5% yoy compared to 4% in December but is in the middle of the inflation target (3-6%) of the South African Central Bank (SARB). This acceleration in inflation is mainly explained by a sharp rise in transport prices linked to base effects of fuel prices (+ 13.7% in January against 2.4% the previous month).

  • Exports' dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries

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    Exports’ dependence to China and Asia of more than 70 countries


    The Coronavirus is expected to have a significant impact at least on China Q1 GDP figure. This will affect many countries firstly through exports to China (including tourism). As shown in charts below and as expected, China’s share in total of exports is high for most of Asian countries particularly for South Korea, Hong Kong and Mongolia. Including Japan, share of exports to Asia for Asian countries is above 50% except for China, India, Sri Lanka and Kazakhstan.

  • Global high yield outlook - Be confident, but not complacent

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    Global high yield outlook: Be confident, but not complacent


    Last year was a strong year for global bond markets, which were supported by the accommodative stance of the main central banks and strong investor demand. US, European and EM high yield (HY) bonds all returned more than 14% swapped into US dollars. The performance was led by the higher-quality segments of the market, such as BB-rated bonds, as well as the strong performance of CCC bonds in Europe. This was due to the search for yield across credit products, helped by positive risk sentiment.

  • What can we expect from CEE4’s recent data?

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    What can we expect from CEE4’s recent data?


    We do not have yet the details regarding GDP components but looking at hard data gives us some insights. In Czech, for instance, we assume that the main driver of growth in Q4 has been private consumption as retail sales, industrial production and services remained positive while the manufacturing sector shrank. Similarly, in Poland, while industrial production and retail sales were strong on the last quarter of 2019, construction sector collapsed. 

  • ESG Investing In Corporate Bonds - Mind The Gap

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    ESG Investing In Corporate Bonds: Mind The Gap


    This research is the companion study of three previous research projects conducted at Amundi that address the issue of socially responsible investing (SRI) in the stockmarket (Berg et al., 2014; Bennani et al., 2018a; Drei et al., 2019). The underlying idea of this new study is to explore the impact of ESG investing on asset pricing in the corporate bond market.

  • Brexit Still Weighs On GBP, But The Situation On Rates And Equity Could Normalise

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    Brexit Still Weighs On GBP, But The Situation On Rates And Equity Could Normalise


    Now that the United Kingdom is officially out of the EU, a new phase has opened up, during which UK officials will have to negotiate a trade deal with the EU to avoid a ‘Brexit cliff edge’ at the end of 2020. The available time span is short, but an agreement is possible on either a trade deal, another extension or some mixture of the two.

  • Turkey - Inflation And Monetary Policy

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    Turkey: Inflation And Monetary Policy


    January’s inflation report and last inflation figures: The Governor of the CBRT debriefed last week on the first inflation report of the year January inflation figure released at 12.15% yoy, higher than in December (11.84%). The rise in housing, electricity and energy were the main drivers pf ...

  • Asset classes views - Detecting Tipping Points

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    Asset classes views: Detecting Tipping Points


    The report highlights the causal relationships between macro-economic factors and long term trends in asset prices, incorporating the latest discussions and analysis and drawing on insights from Amundi’s industry experts. We confirm our central scenario of  subdued growth and inflation on a global scale, albeit leading to even lower returns due to complications from late-cycle investing. Recovery is likely as rates and profits normalise while central bank authorities stock up on the ammunitions needed to face further cyclical downturns.

  • Top Risk Map - February 2020

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    Top Risk Map - February 2020


    At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between the US and China. Now, growth expectations are becoming the main driver of the market. That’s why the recent volatility due to the news about the spreading of the corona virus in China is higher than in the case of US-Iran tensions, as the epidemic could harm China (and global growth) if not contained soon (not our base case at the moment).

  • Investment Phazer Update - downward trend is confirmed

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    Investment Phazer Update: downward trend is confirmed


    While in the short term we do expect some temporary relief coming from positive economic surprises and supportive news on the trade front (should coronavirus impact be limited), on a medium-term horizon our economic scenario confirms the fragility of the profit cycle.

  • Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For Em Equities

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    Focus On Fundamentals: Virus Volatility Provides Entry Points For EM Equities


    The coronavirus has been the strongest driver behind the recent volatility in financial markets, providing the trigger for a break in the rally in risk assets, which had been running uninterrupted since October.We should be aware that the trough for markets could be well in advance of the peak of the epidemic, as markets tend to overreact at the beginning of a crisis and then stabilise and rebound, despite the continuation of the negative news flow.

  • Fiat Money Vs. Cryptocurrencies : Private Vs. Public Digital Currencies…

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    Fiat Money Vs. Cryptocurrencies / Private Vs. Public Digital Currencies…


    The first part of this study analysed the competition between USD, RMB and EURO and presented the challenges for China and Europe to develop a genuine international currencies, having the capacity to compete with the USD. However, currency competition goes well beyond the “simple” competition between sovereign currencies (USD, EUR, RMB, JPY, CHF…).