Amundi Asset Management

2019 Top 400 ranking: 9http://www.amundi.com

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Amundi

ECB: dovish tone and calm markets - but flexibility needed with volatility ahead

• ECB tone: The overall stance is still broadly accommodative and aims to confirm the consensus view. It is reasonable to expect a gradual tapering of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) in Q4 and the first rate hike in mid-2019. However, the ECB still questions the reading of the recent deterioration seen in the surveys: it seems likely that it could wait until July to clarify its monetary strategy. 

• Economy and risks: As expected, President Draghi did not talk-down the economy but, instead, took the opportunity to stress that real GDP growth outlook, despite signs of moderation in Q1, is still solid and broader based in terms of engines of growth. While the risks to growth are still considered balanced, the “global risks” - in particular the rise in protectionist tensions - have become prominent.

• Investment strategy: Carry is still the ‘name of the game’ to generate value in Euro fixed income (as the recent slowdown in growth does not call for a faster change in current monetary policy) at least until the next meeting. High flexibility applied to portfolio management is a must, in our view, to benefit from the expected volatility that will arise when ECB delivers a clearer message on what will come next. On global credit, different phases in the cycle call for actively playing sector divergences in Europe and the US. In Europe, we are cautious on industrials and prefer financials, while in the US is the opposite: we prefer industrials, energy and TMT, but we are less keen on financials.

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Head Office
90, boulevard Pasteur
Paris
75015
France
Company website:
http://www.amundi.com
Year Founded:
2010
No. of investment offices worldwide:
6

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  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019

    Global Investment Views - September 2019

    White papersWed, 4 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now. 

  • domestic focus to exploit emerging markets equity opportunities

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    White papersSun, 1 Sep 2019

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  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.

    White papersTue, 27 Aug 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

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