All Equities articles – Page 79
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - July 2020
We marginally amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario on the back of recent developments. We also increase
the probability of our central scenario from 50 to 60% while reducing the likelihood of the upside scenario from 30 to 20%. -
White papersThematics views - July 2020
Covid-19 is a symmetric shock with asymmetric outcomes. Existin imbalances within Europe such as public debt, economic models or vision for the union, turn to cracks and the EU is facing fragmentation risks. However, the EU should be able to get over it as it did with the Global Financial Crisis.
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White papersWeekly Investment Update – 24 June 2020
The number of countries lifting their COVID-19 lockdowns is increasing, and sentiment indicators are picking up. Levels of mobility are accelerating. This should help the real economy to spring back at a faster pace than was originally envisaged. Data appears to be bottoming and markets are expecting it to improve at a stronger pace going forward.
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White papersThe day after #8 - Deglobalisation could improve diversification but also exacerbate financial contagion
In recent years world trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend and its robust contribution to global economic performance. The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) marked a historic turning point in the degree of global economic integration. Since 2007/08 global trade has entered a period of increasingly protectionist policies (trade barriers, national subsidies, national champions), decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors, rising policy uncertainty and more recently, trade tensions.
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White papersBiden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections. To put Biden’s lead in perspective, no prior candidate or President has seen a lead this large at this point of the race. However, Trump still holds onto slightly favourable ratings on the economy. A game changer could be the Democratic party taking control of the Senate, which appared unlikely early this year.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views – July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
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White papersMarket weekly – What to expect after the Great Pandemic of 2020 (podcast)
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 has left asset allocators disorientated. Uncertainty has deepened and the outlook is now for bond and equity returns to be lower for even longer, making the hunt for yield all the more acute for investors.
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White papers(Weekly Pandemic) Market Commentary – Mind the curve
The virus - galloping, but less deadly. Covid is spreading like never before, the stats say. 19 June saw 177k new Covid cases, the highest ever. The 5-day rolling average, currently at 143k, is 50k higher than in mid-May. Arguably, the numbers today are likely more truthful than in the past, because there is more testing. In a freshly released Focal Point “Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution” (online on 22 June), we advocate basing cases estimates on deaths – a measure less affected by testing issues.
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White papersWeekly investment update – 17 June 2020
Emerging market hot spots struggle with virus / worrying trends in US / China fights an outbreak / Fed signals lower for longer despite economic uptick / markets adopt a brighter tone
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White papersThe day after #7 - Climate change post Covid-19: A crisis at a crossroad
This year was supposed to be the year in the fight against climate change. Instead, 2020 has become the year of the coronavirus pandemic.
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White papersMarket weekly – Factor investing in equities – Lessons from the COVID-19 crisis (podcast)
Our multi-factor equity strategy seeks to tilt portfolios towards value, quality, low volatility and momentum stocks. During the recent rally in developed equity markets, exposures to these factors did not perform as might have been expected. In this week’s podcast, Grégory Taieb, quantitative investment specialist, and Laurent Lagarde, head of quantitative equity portfolio management, talk to Daniel Morris, senior market strategist, about the particularities of the recent rally and the outlook for factor investing in equities.
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White papersThe Great Instability: Five lessons from COVID-19
The Great Instability: this is the label we chose last year to describe the fragile nature of the global economy and wider society, looking at 2020. It’s a label inspired by the contrast with a very different period known as the Great Stability – a dim but not so distant past, in the years leading up to the Great Financial Crisis, when it appeared as if the economy had achieved its state of ‘nirvana’. A global pandemic was not exactly front of mind when we settled on ‘The Great Instability’; still, it fits quite neatly into the overarching concept. After all, the world was already, and will remain, a volatile place.
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White papers5G Dis-Connectivity
Geopolitical and trade tensions may fragment the 5G supply chain, but while that could make the theme more complex to navigate, it is unlikely to diminish its importance.
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White papersMarket Commentary – Financial repression and the sovereign carry trade
Chinese data on Monday may vindicate hopes of a V-shape recovery. Yet we warn against extrapolating 1/ an early bounce driven by pent-up demand and 2/ Chinese trends to the broader economy. The ‘swoosh’ scenario for the global economy remains very credible.
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White papersWill Europe Waste The Crisis?
Investors should be rooting for EU leaders as they attempt reforms that do more than just ease the immediate pain.
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White papersCrisis and resilience – Navigating a sustainable recovery
When we emerge from the pandemic, an important issue will be whether the collaboration and focus can be maintained and harnessed to address the climate crisis or other global issues.
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White papersNo Liftoff on the Horizon
The Fed Funds rate is set to remain at its zero-lower bound for several years, while the BOE and BOJ assess current policy next week, and more trade deals appear on the horizon.
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White papersWeekly investment update – 10 June 2020
Hot spots in Latin America, India and the Middle East / Brazil charts its own course / will the US see a second wave / caution: US jobs data / more stimulus from the ECB and a German package
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White papersResponsibility Report 2020
Welcome to our inaugural Responsibility Report – an annual publication that provides clear information about our responsible business practices, our approach to responsible investing and our firm-wide advocacy activities.
