The Macro Dashboard provides a quantitative snapshot of the state of the U.S. economy and markets. With a consistent scorecard, investment committees can use this tool to evaluate periodic changes in conditions, prioritize research and drive dialogue that ultimately results in better informed portfolio strategy.
Inflation: Trailing inflation has continued to decline over the past few months. Forward looking inflation expectations expect the disinflation process to continue.
U.S. monetary policy: Still restrictive, despite the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting by 50 basis points (bps) in September, and financial conditions have continued loosening. The Fed predicts another 50 bps of cuts in 2024.
Economic activity: This category remains mixed, despite ongoing improvement in consumer expectations. We await further clarity in this category.
Employment: Healthy, with jobless claims still near cyclical lows and job openings well above its long-term average. Some cracks may have started to appear in employment data, but only marginally so and we will continue to monitor.
Investor sentiment: Improving, with broad sentiment becoming more positive.
U.S. equity fundamentals: This category remains mostly unchanged since our last update, with earnings ratios still elevated versus historic norms. However, expected earnings growth has marginally weakened.
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