Inflation is by far the most crucial investment consideration today, yet it’s not all bad news for long-term investors. In this paper, our Research, ESG and Investment teams explain the factors shaping their inflation outlook, the dynamics behind resilient equity markets, why ESG and sustainable development is here to stay despite short- term price pressures, and where to find investment opportunities in today’s uncertain environment.
Markets are priced for disinflationary perfection
Inflation was dormant for long, and even considered dead in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. Yet 2022 saw the genie get out of the bottle. We are confident that price pressure is past its peak. But its decline will be slow and bumpy, requiring a prolonged period of high rates – and some patience until central banks pivot. Underlying price pressure may reach targets over the next 2-3 years. The outlook is surrounded by substantial uncertainties, with the risks tilted towards a stickier overshoot.
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