Market Scenarios and Risks - January 2022

We are making no change to the narrative and the probabilities of the scenarios. The central scenario assumes that Covid will become endemic with multiple, albeit manageable waves, that fiscal levers will remain significant and tied to monetary policy, and that growth will come back to potential in 2023. We assume the Omicron variant will temporarily impact the recovery in Europe.

We make no change to the top risks to our 2022 central scenario this month since the Omicron wave was already part of Pandemic 2.0

We consider Covid-19-related risks to be part of the economic risks. Risks are clustered to ease the detection of hedging strategies, but they are obviously linked.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below