“As the Fed moves to reduce policy guidance, uncertainty over the short-rate path is likely to rise, creating additional volatility along the yield curve”
The reform plus fiscal package is genuinely large and potentially a regime change, but not yet an unqualified “buy Germany/Europe” signal. The principal upside risk is a confidence-led private capex cycle. The key downside risk is implementation failures and higher bond yields, which could turn a productive investment programme into a less equity-friendly fiscal expansion.
Although the German economy is still characterised by a weak recovery, sluggish productivity and persistent supply constraints, the combination of an extensive infrastructure and defence spending programme and a package of 34 structural reforms is improving the medium-term outlook. While the direct impact on growth in 2027 is likely to be limited, more significant gains are expected over time, provided the reforms are implemented effectively.