US mid-term election: no red tide

  • Election result: The outlook for the House of Representatives (House) and the Senate remains uncertain and the situation remains fluid. Republicans are still expected to have an eventual slender majority in the House, but a Democratic majority remains a possibility. 

The outcome for the Senate is also fluid, with it likely the Democrats will retain control of the Senate, though Republicans could still take control. The Democrats outperformed expectations and defied historical norms of losing seats during mid-term elections. In the Senate, the Democrats picked up one Republican seat in Pennsylvania, but there are four seats yet to be determined (three Democratic seats, one Republican seat).

  • Key takeaways: Abortion resonated as an issue for voters and Generation Z turned out to vote, perhaps motivated by abortion rights, the environment and concerns over the threat to democracy. Voters shunned election deniers by motivating those voters concerned over democracy following the 6 January 2021 insurrection of the US Capitol building. Arguably, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now the frontrunner in the GOP primary.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below