Measuring and Pricing Cyclone-Related Physical Risk under Changing Climate

We propose a statistical methodology to quantify the financial implications of tropical cyclone-related physical risks implied by climate change. 

To address the sensitivity of  disaster  intensity  to  climate  change,  we  provide  a  Monte  Carlo  methodology  to generate synthetic cyclones consistent with climate scenarios of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).  Sovereign exposure and vulnerability assessments in principal  tropical  cyclone  basins  are  based  on  projections  of  population  densities  in shared  socioeconomic  pathways  coupled  with  downscaled  physical  asset  values  constructed  using  mixed  data  along  with  locally  calibrated  damage  functions.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below