We see risks on all fronts, but with a little less intensity at the beginning of the year. As such, we lowered the probabilities from 30 to 25%.
Economic fundamentals are deteriorating globally, which is reflected in the central scenario, but is not yet fully priced in the equity market. The course of the Ukraine war and its potential implications can tip the scenario in either direction: risks are tilted to the downside in the short term, but the probability of ceasefire by year-end remains significant. We consider Covid-19-related risks as part of the economic risks. Risks are clustered to ease the detection of hedging strategies, but they are related.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below