This month, we update the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios, taking into account 4Q20 developments in vaccinations, fiscal and monetary policies, and (geo)politics. We have a higher conviction on our central scenario and we are raising its probability from 65% to 75%. We are lowering the probability of our downside scenario from 25% to 15%, which remains above historical levels.
We confirm our constructive medium-term view on the “financial recovery regime”, with more caution in the short-term on financial markets, given the virus-dependent news flow.
Read the full whitepaper now at the link below