Macroeconomic Picture - April 2022

United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms of confidence and spending. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should remain resilient to the Ukraine war confidence hit.

Eurozone: as the increase in energy and commodity prices, which already took place in autumn and winter, continues to impact European households and businesses as the Ukraine war continues, we expect European countries’ domestic demand to suffer a significant hit. The EA economy was giving signs of improving until February, but the war has now put the recovery on hold; on the inflation front, in fact, we expect inflation to rise higher still for a few months and then to decelerate, assuming weaker energy and commodity price dynamics in the second half of the year.

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