French election: markets complacent for Macron victory, but game is not yet won

The first round of the Presidential elections in France took place on Sunday 10 April and the result confirmed the general picture that commentators had anticipated in the weeks leading up to the vote. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face off against National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in the second round, scheduled for 24 April.

Both candidates improved in absolute as well as in percentage terms compared to the first round in the 2017 elections. Macron was able to garner an extra 3% of votes, bringing his tally up to 27.84% (representing north of one million additional votes). Le Pen’s share increased from 21.3% in 2017 to 23.1%. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third, similarly improved from 19.58% five years ago to 22%, with a slight increase in the absolute number of votes. Although pollsters are still betting on a Macron victory, the second round is another campaign altogether. One thing is for certain: the outlook is very different compared to five years ago, when President Macron won the Presidency with 66% of votes cast in his favour.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below