“While EM may struggle in a challenging global environment, there are nonetheless advancing structural factors that can benefit some peripheral countries.”
In an environment of weak global demand, Emerging Markets (EM) are likely to soon enter a cyclical downturn phase. Despite China’s pronounced deceleration and a tighter policy mix across the board, EM as a whole has displayed remarkable resilience, with GDP growth for 2023 being repeatedly revised upward. This growth has been driven by large countries such as India, Mexico and Brazil. While a broader softening of growth is expected, it is unlikely to spiral into a general recessionary scenario and a mild recovery is anticipated by mid-2024. Next year, EM growth is expected to decelerate to 3.6% on average from around 4% this year. Importantly, the growth premium in favour of Emerging Markets over Developed Markets is projected to continue widening. Asia is set to register the strongest contribution to world GDP once again.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below