All White papers articles – Page 222
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White papersPortfolio construction themes
The economic backdrop that investors have been anticipating appears to be on the horizon — easing inflation and less aggressive central banks (although the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening, albeit at a more measured pace), but also an increasing likelihood of recession.
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White papersOutlook 2022: European real estate
We plot out our expectations for real estate next year and beyond, including why the asset class is pivotal in the fight against climate change, and how investors can turn that in their favour.
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White papersISA Outlook 2023
The global economy in general – and real estate markets in particular – are currently in the throes of an acute episode with pressure coming from every direction
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White papersLiving Wage: Progress and headwinds
In the decade or so since the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) were established it has become increasingly accepted that companies have a fundamental responsibility to respect human rights in their operations and supply chains.
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White papersA fresh look at thematic investing
Thematic strategies have had a challenging time in 2022, with many factors combining to unsettle markets. Higher inflation, greater geopolitical risks, and uncertainty about the economic outlook have affected the valuations of many companies we believe will benefit from key long-term trends. In our view, their prospects are undiminished.
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White papersInvestment Institute Outlook 2023
Following a highly challenging year, our expectation for 2023 and 2024 is to finally see inflation retreat against a backdrop of global growth slowing to its softest – barring the pandemic – since 2009. But while we anticipate a challenging road ahead, we expect a slow recovery emerging in 2024.
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White papersREAL ESTATE’S PUBLIC QUADRANTS: Increasingly attractive, as most of the risks are already priced in
Dark clouds of a recession hang over investment markets with the Federal Reserve continuing to tighten monetary policy. Markets are pricing for Fed funds to approach 4.5% by year end, possibly higher in 2023 moving into restrictive territory.
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White papersESG Viewpoint: The challenges of assessing physical climate risk
Much of the investor focus on climate risk to date has been on managing ‘transition risk’, defined as the financial risk associated with changes in areas such as regulation, sentiment, or technology on the route to decarbonisation.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - December 2022
United States: Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, lifting 2022 average projections. However, our call for 2023-24 forecast has not changed significantly, with restrictive monetary policy dragging growth well below potential
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - December 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersLula is back and already scoring goals
Lula netted a goal in Egypt at COP27 in the fight against climate change. However, it was an own-goal on the spending front that unsettled the markets and threw doubt on expectations of a prudently populist policy direction. We still believe Lula’s policies will be of a centre-left nature, with the help of the markets, though risks have risen.
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White papersRecent developments do not change our expectations for the Russia-Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine will continue to dictate Europe’s prospects in 2023. It will shape local and EU politics, energy security, industrial policy, and international relations. In this article, we outline our expectations for the next phase of the war and offer an optimistic prospect for peace negotiations to lead to a cessation of hostilities in the second half of the year.
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White papersEuropean fixed income: the difficult equation if the energy crisis persists
Beyond the impact of domestic economic variables, euro rates are determined by the energy crisis and political monetary choices. The combination of a new regime of higher energy prices and persistent expansionary fiscal policy could lead to a debt supply shock and persistent inflationary pressures.
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White papersDefensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual increase in risk exposure later in the year
”Global slowdown amid still elevated inflation to characterize most part of 2023.”
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White papersWhen fiscal policy puts the European institutions under pressure
“The new governance proposed by the Commission goes in the right direction, but risks of failing are high.”
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White papersThe Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
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White papersHardening Borders: Opportunities in Security, Health and Trade
Seeking the potential beneficiaries of a new age of deglobalization and insecurity.
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White papersAn Emerging Opportunity
If you are one of the many investors looking positively at high yield bonds, you might want to consider emerging markets debt, too.
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White papersThe Rise of GP-Led Secondaries
As private equity investors scramble for liquidity in this volatile climate, more general partners are orchestrating transactions in the secondary market.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2022
We believe the Fed would keep rates in restrictive territory in the near term. This, coupled with concerns over earnings, allows us to stay cautious on risk assets but with select opportunities in US equities, businesses with strong balance sheets, and quality, value and dividend oriented stocks.
