All White papers articles – Page 18
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White papersThe JPY carry trade: what’s next?
A series of weak US data in July questioned the market narrative of a soft landing and brought back fears of recession. This was the main trigger, although a hawkish surprise from the BoJ undoubtedly added fuel to what turned out to be an unusually sharp unwinding of carry trades funded in JPY. The amount of exposure of these carry trades was at an all-time high due to the low level of overall market volatility and the volatility of the JPY itself. So is it over?
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White papersECB cuts rates again this year
“Declining price pressures are leading central banks such as the ECB to reduce policy rates. This, coupled with uncertainty over economic growth, could potentially be supportive for European bonds.”
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White papersBond investing to support positive environmental and social outcomes
Progress on the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development goals is lagging. With the target date of 2030 looming, less than a fifth of the goals are on track. With vital work still to be done, fund managers have an opportunity to address these critical gaps and accelerate progress. Mario Eisenegger, ESG bond manager outlines the role that bond investors can play to generate positive outcomes for both people and planet.
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White papersAddressing climate impacts and nature loss through real assets
The effects of climate change are a megatrend on a global scale, influencing the expected risk-return profile of real assets investments and the opportunity set for investors. The increasing frequency and severity of physical climate hazards, as well as nature loss resulting from changing ecosystems requires new ways of thinking about financial risk and return in real assets investments.
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White papersMacroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - September 2024
The rise in the July unemployment rate to 4.3% (latest reading in August is 4.2%) triggered a significant market concern about a possible weaker-than-expected US labour market, raising the risk of an impending recession. We do expect a significant slowdown of the US economy, but not a recession. We expect a significant deceleration in the next few quarters, consistent with a broader weakening of many labour market indicators.
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White papersThe critical role of covenants in Private Credit
Covenants in private credit often act as crucial safeguards, functioning as early warning systems for lenders. They help monitor borrower stability and manage risks, allowing lenders to intervene if deviations from their base case occur.
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White papersThe rise of semi-liquid secondaries funds
The secondary market in private equity consists of transactions where investors buy and sell existing private equity fund interests. In the first half of 2024, the global secondaries market had an estimated volume of USD 68 billion, which represents a 58% increase on the previous year’s 1H volume of USD 43 billion. The market can be broadly categorized into two main segments: GP-led secondaries and LP-led secondaries.
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White papersThe U.S. Election and Energy: More Than Meets the Eye
The presidential candidates have well-known policy profiles on energy, but how could they translate in the real world? The Biden-Harris administration has staked much of its political capital on the energy transition—curbing carbon emissions and encouraging the use of electric cars and renewable energy—while former President Donald Trump is known for his support of the fossil fuel industry and streamlining energy regulation.
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White papersBalance Is Critical for the Obstacles Ahead
Rising inflation may be behind us, but now a nervous market parses every data release for signs of recession. Regular readers know that, in early September, I hear the starting gun for the race to the end of the year. As we get back to our desks after summer breaks, focus turns to end-of-year portfolio results, and calendars fill to review the year’s achievements, lessons and progress, and to begin peering into the year to come.
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White papersUS election debate generates more political than policy buzz
The first debate between the two candidates running in the U.S. presidential race was a fractious exchange that shed little new light on policy details but is likely to be politically consequential.
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White papersThe technology sector – An update after the summer volatility
Volatility may be part and parcel of equity markets, but this summer’s swings stand out. The causes cited for the sell-off included concerns over the outlook for the US economy and an unwinding of yen carry trades. Investors also worried about the risk of the vast sums being invested in artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately not generating sufficient returns. Daniel Morris investigates the AI angle.*
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White papersArtificial Intelligence Insights
Artificial Intelligence (AI): what was once just a buzzword, is now reshaping industries and creating an environment ripe with investment opportunities. This transformative force is driving efficiency and innovation across industries and sectors, including real estate. We think AI has the potential to enhance investment processes and add diversity to investment strategies. Asset managers who strategically integrate AI into their operations can gain a competitive edge, and risk falling behind if they don’t.
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White papersA(nother) Cautious ECB Cut Amidst Uneasy Stability
The ECB unanimously cut its main policy rate to 3.5% at its September policy meeting, and we anticipate a gradual and limited path with further rate cuts, at least until the end of 2024.
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White papersGlobal small caps: headwinds turning into tailwinds
Alan Rowsell, fund manager of the Premier Miton Global Smaller Companies Fund, looks at what has affected small caps around the world and whether the odds are in favour for a small cap resurgence.
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White papersGerman residential real estate
In our previous piece, we laid out why the current market situation indicates an attractive entry point into European real estate markets as the cycle starts turning. This is particularly the case for those segments or markets where leasing market fundamentals are favorable. In this article, we elaborate on the market fundamentals of German residential real estate.
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White papersEmerging Markets Unveiled: Uncovering Opportunities for Impact in Emerging Markets
This report shares how our Sovereign Impact Rating framework addresses some of the key challenges when assessing ESG impact performance for sovereigns.
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White papersRally broadening is underway
A mild US economic deceleration, interest rate cuts by the Fed and an improving earnings profile could further support the broadening of the rally outside the expensive US technology names.
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White papersRiding the technical tailwinds: The outlook for investment-grade credit
Credit markets have had a comparatively easy ride so far in 2024, and investment-grade corporate spreads are now at some of their tightest levels for a long time. But investors must guard against complacency.
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White papersTime to get active: Finding opportunities in emerging-market debt
Emerging markets have remained robust amid the economic and political uncertainties of 2024, but active management will be important if debt investors are to identify standout performers over the coming months.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - September 2024
When central banks are cutting rates and risks of a US recession are limited, we remain disciplined and mildly positive on risk assets.
