White papers - all assets – Page 9
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White papers
The Coming Wave of Homebuyers
How higher rates for longer could be positive for U.S. consumption.
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Navigating key questions in fixed income investments
This paper contains our latest views based on data analysis using the Franklin Templeton Institute US Fixed Income Navigator (FIN), with a special emphasis on elevated volatility, the potential for interest rate cuts, and a shift to a brighter bond market environment.
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Irish banks: a classic turnaround tale… and opportunity
In April, with little fanfare, AIB (Allied Irish Bank) became the first Irish bank to issue a 10-year dollar senior benchmark bond.It was popular with investors: the bank borrowed $1 billion with orders of $7 billion. It was priced at 160bps over Treasuries – a similar level at which we would expect the larger UK and French banks to issue. This confirms that Irish banks are back to their rightful place in the eyes of credit investors.
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Fixed Income – A new era for bonds
Surging inflation brought an end to the decade-long era of low bond yields. In the decade ahead, we believe bond yields will not return to the near-zero levels of the recent past or see the steady capital appreciation which marked the prior 30 years. Instead, our view is that inflation and real yields are more likely to remain closer to their long-term averages, supported by central bank policy, changing supply/demand dynamics, and the risk that inflation could spike again.
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Plastic wrap: from seaweed biopolymers to Europe’s new law for cutting packaging waste
Scaling up seaweed-based biopolymers, major investments is chemical recycling and the ratification of a European law to reduce packaging waste are among the developments covered in this issue of Plastic wrap, our bimonthly review of the science, policy and corporate activity pivotal in creating a circular plastics value chain.
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Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - May 2024
Monthly Cross Asset - Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
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Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - May 2024
“We expect 75 bps of rate cuts in 2024 as monetary policy remains restrictive, growth will slow down, and inflation data do not alter our projections.”
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IMF spring meeting take-aways: short-term resilience, but no reacceleration in the mid term
In recent months, the IMF and other economic forecasters have raised their growth projections for 2024. The April World Economic Outlook showed revisions (+0.3% Global) that primarily affected the US, China and Emerging Markets (EM). These revisions were based on expectations of less economic scarring from the recent crisis, insufficient fiscal adjustment supporting short-term growth and less effective monetary policy transmission compared to the past.
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M&A wave could enhance convertible bond returns in 2024
Takeover activity was strong in 2023, both among private equity and strategic buyers. The outlook for this year looks just as promising, in our view, reflecting the recent improvements in liquidity and economic conditions. There is a large amount of dry powder to be deployed, and the hope that interest rates are stabilising should build market confidence, although the Federal Reserve has been unwilling to provide reassurances on this.
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High yield: differentiation returns to drive the next leg of performance
European high yield has outperformed the US this year, which in itself is a pretty rare occurrence. But things get even more interesting when you look at what’s driving those returns.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2024
Topic of the Month: IMF spring meeting take-aways: short-term resilience, but no reacceleration in the mid term
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Japan’s corporate transformation fuels renewed optimism
After a 34-year wait Japan’s stock market has reached a new record high, driven by optimism about corporate governance changes and attractive valuations. Following a stellar rally over the past year, Carl Vine, Co-Head of Asia Pacific Equities, believes there are further chapters to come in the Japanese equity story and the ongoing transformation of corporate culture offers potential opportunities for patient, engaged investors.
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Correlation breakdown? Let’s listen to the data
At certain junctures in each investment cycle, market observers like us note phrases such as “correlations are breaking down”. Such an event is crucial, as the structure of our multi-asset portfolios hinges on the intricate concept of diversification. Ideally, correlations should be concentrated enough to avoid being muddled by investment noise, yet not so concentrated as to forfeit the benefits of cross-asset and intra-asset class diversification.
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Allocation Views: A healthy correction
An improving macro environment is typically associated with strong markets, which is causing Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions to maintain a tilt toward riskier assets.
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Premier Miton Diversified Sustainable Growth Fund: why sustainable forests?
Premier Miton fund manager Duncan Goodwin considers natural capital, climate change and sustainable forests in the latest Sustainable Times.
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White papers
Global Investment Views - May 2024
Recent inflation and growth data from the US indicates continued strength in the economy, leading us and various institutions including the IMF to revise up US growth. We see the current strong momentum to continue into Q2 but expect a deceleration in H2, without negative growth in any quarter.
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White papers
Emerging markets are gaining interest
“In the search for equity opportunities, Emerging Markets may offer appealing valuations and exposure to long-term growth opportunities.”
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White papers
Modeling Direct and Indirect Climate-related Physical Risks
This paper addresses the methodological challenges in quantifying physical risks associated with climate change, proposing a novel top-down stochastic approach focused on modeling financial losses from extreme events. Unlike existing studies limited to specific events, our approach utilizes predefined climate sensitivity parameters, enabling a broader application across various extreme events using the example of tropical cyclones.
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White papers
Climate investing is an opportunity for Emerging Markets
Climate pathways are integral to economic and market expectations, and investors must increasingly focus their attention on the impact of the energy and climate transitions, particularly in Emerging Markets (EM). Last year’s record-breaking temperatures were a stark reminder that the global economic landscape is undergoing profound shifts; 2023 was the hottest year on record, with average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels.
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Hedge Fund Outlook H2 2024
Hedge Funds (HF) are up 4.2% year-to-date as of March 2024, which compares well with diversified global allocations, including 40/60 Equity/Bond portfolios which are up around +2.2% and have higher volatility. HF performance year-to-date was led by CTAs, EM focused and L/S Equity both Directional and Neutral. Overall, the HF industry continued to produce very strong alpha, up an estimated 6%+ y/y.