Outlooks – Page 88
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White papersFixed income dynamics in the current monetary and fiscal landscape
The global economy rebounded quickly during the summer from the coronavirus pandemic. In this phase of recovery, central banks played a key role in the massive supply of credit to governments and companies. To tackle the health crisis, almost all governments implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus and support measures, including corporate loan guarantees. At the same time, major central banks increased their purchases of sovereign debt to levels never seen before, played a backstop role in the corporate debt market and provided cheap liquidity to banks (in the case of the ECB).
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks - October 2020
This month, we do not amend the narrative of our central and alternative scenario. Economic data confirm a slower recovery path in line with our central scenario and Central Banks maintain their accommodative stace. We maintain the probability of our central scenario at 70%, 20% for the downside scenario and 10% for the upside.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersNotes on a crisis: from the rear-view mirror to the road ahead (part I)
Rallying credit markets at the turn of the year were followed by the swift, pandemic-induced drawdown in March, ushering in a period of heightened volatility and some of the worst liquidity conditions since the financial crisis. As we emerge from a tumultuous six months, we consider what has changed in markets and what might lie ahead for fixed-income investors.
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White papersDecarbonisation set for a boost in the EU
The EU is stepping up its efforts to tackle global warming. A new tougher target to cut air pollution should enhance the economic incentive for companies to switch to more environmentally friendly ways of doing business.
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White papersAdvantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate
President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden.
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White papersOutlook and Implications for the Upcoming US Election
What potential election outcomes could mean for the US equity market.
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White papersFixed Income: A Strong Recovery, Many Challenges Ahead
While the US economy has been staging a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the challenge is far from over, says Dr. Sonal Desai.
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White papersFixed Income: Moving From Mostly Empty To Half Full
Fixed Income Views explores macro and sector outlooks as the debate on when and how we should return to normal economic activity continues.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2020
Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month.
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White papersScenarios Around the “Not Quite Recovery”
We’ve come a long way since March, but there’s still a long road ahead. So far, the recovery is encouraging but the permanent damage to employment remains to be seen, as does the resilience of company balance sheets.
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White papersDisruptive technology – The drivers and the challenges
Disruptive technological change will continue to proceed along multiple dimensions, through innovations in products and processes as companies harness innovations from research and development in both the commercial and academic spheres, although the two are increasingly intertwined.
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White papersThe low volatility anomaly in equity sectors – 10 years later!
A decade ago, BNP Paribas Asset Management launched the global low volatility equity strategy after undertaking proprietary research into the characteristics of low risk stocks.
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White papersOn the Road to Japanification
Sentiment around monetary policy, fiscal policy and a host of other factors can swing markets, but can anything return us to sustained growth and inflation?
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White papersResilience and opportunity in European specialty
The longest economic expansion in modern history came to an abrupt end due to the COVID-19 pandemic, causing severe disruption to real estate markets.
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White papers2020 versus 2008: What’s changed for European infrastructure debt?
Infrastructure debt is not immune to a severe economic downturn, but the global financial crisis has left the asset class stronger. We explain why.
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White papersReal estate: A home for impact investing
From climate change and geopolitical tensions to rising inequality and a global pandemic, society faces many challenges and investors are seeking to be part of the solution.
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White papersCorona hasn’t changed the climate crisis
The corona crisis, the US elections, trade wars… the climate problem remains. And also the need for an investment strategy that specifically responds to climate change. If anything, the health crisis has created additional opportunities to outperform the market this year due to stimulus for green sectors, argue Ulrik Fugmann and Edward Lees, who head the Environmental Strategies Group at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
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White papersUS presidential election: how it will impact US economy and financial markets
Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkably stable lead in the national polls this year. Currrently, he is leading President Trump by 7.6%, according to our poll of polls, down from a peak of 10.4% in June. However, we believe the race is much closer, at around 50/50, with a small Biden edge
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White papersTech innovation: reaching all sectors
Companies across a range of industries are deploying innovative technologies to spark rapid growth, creating attractive investment opportunities
