Outlooks – Page 86
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White papersOutlook Upgraded, But Still Not in First Class…
The IMF upgraded their 2020 growth outlook due to better-than-anticipated U.S. and euro area 2Q20 GDP, but noted a long and uneven recovery. Global flash PMIs will likely show differentiation by region next week, and Brexit negotiations are expected to continue into November.
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White papersFrom Buddha to Bagehot: how global banks are keeping the liquidity flowing
In previous editions, we have explored asset quality, the value of collateral and capital. This time, Fiorino turns his attention to another core concept of banking – liquidity – and considers how banks are keeping it plentiful amid the coronavirus-induced freeze.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2020
Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.
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White papersBiodiversity in focus in EOS’s Q3 Public Engagement Report
The Q3 Public Engagement Report from EOS at Federated Hermes focuses on three of its expanding engagement themes for 2020 – biodiversity and sustainable land use, fast fashion, and business purpose – all issues brought to the fore by the pandemic.
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White papersLiquidity trends in the wake of Covid-19: implications for portfolio construction
The Covid-19 crisis has triggered the deepest liquidity squeeze since 2008. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), an unprecedented real economy shock led to extremely quick deterioration of financial conditions and showed that, under extreme circumstances, liquidity may dry up not only within risk assets, but also within risk free ones.
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White papersInvestment Impact of 2020 Elections
The 2020 US presidential and congressional elections are fast approaching and the global market outlook is already hazy in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. We are likely to find more policy and political turbulence through Inauguration Day than we have faced in past elections.
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White papersChoosing Trump or Biden
Investors will benefit from supportive policy under either outcome, but the impact on specific industries is much harder to predict.
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White papersCredit investors: delivering into the imperatives of Paris
In this video Anna Karim, Investment Director Fixed Income, and Mitch Reznick, Head of Research and Sustainable Fixed Income, discuss how to decarbonise portfolios within fixed income and the imperative of aligning investment strategies with the Paris Agreement.
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White papersPrime time: How streaming is reshaping film and TV
The last ten years have seen the film and television industry transform beyond recognition. In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our credit and equity teams discuss whether streaming will continue its inexorable reshaping of the media landscape.
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White papersThe day after #12 - Changing shares of labour and capital incomes: what implications for investors?
The share of national income that is distributed to labour vs. capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. We believe the Covid-19 crisis, along with other factors, will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades. A reversion to the long-term average ratio of labour and capital in the share of income would probably enhance social and political stability, and would better fit with a consumer-driven growth model.
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White papersEMD: A Strong Tailwind, But Risks on the Horizon
Segments of the EM debt market have been bright spots in fixed income this year. Will EMs outperform DMs in the months ahead—or are the risks too great? It may come down to country and credit selection.
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White papersWhen the chips are down: the outlook for semiconductors
After a challenging 2019, the semiconductor manufacturing sector was placed under even more pressure by the exogenous shock of the coronavirus pandemic. Yet the industry has staged an impressive recovery and our Global Emerging Markets team retains a positive long-term view on the sector, arguing that technology trends will quickly reheat any cooling demand for global chips.
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White papersCoronavirus: what now for economies and markets?
It’s been a tumultuous time for investors everywhere. Momentum is the key when looking at future prospects for stock markets and employment prospects across the continent.
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White papersWhat the US election means for markets … and what it doesn’t!
While every US presidential election is contentious, this year’s race seems especially divisive. Partisanship is extreme, and the difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in approach, personality and behaviour is stark. The charged rhetoric may increase the uncertainty and anxiety for investors as we approach election day. Most recently we saw evidence of this anxiety as the market reacted to news of President Trump’s positive Covid-19 test.
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White papersHow best to approach climate change risk management?
Chris Wagstaff considers how asset owners might best approach climate change risk management by adopting a number of non-mutually exclusive mitigating actions to address transition and physical risks.
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White papersFranklin Templeton Investment Solutions: Allocation Views
We are growing more accustomed to the strange new landscape left behind after the COVID-19 recession. The virus threat remains very real, with notable flare-ups in Europe more recently, even as populations get more used to dealing with it. Optimism over an eventual vaccine and improved treatments is balanced by the realization that even on the most optimistic timetable, we remain a long way from a full return to normality.
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White papersMateriality Matters
How Environmental, Social and Governance Issues Inform Long-term Growth and Sustainability of Companies
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White papersBracing for Winter, Looking Forward to Spring
“Anticipation of much lower levels of uncertainty in 12 months’ time—paired with the after-effects of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, the potential for another fiscal boost to come, and the Federal Reserve’s new, more dovish policy framework—feed into this quarter’s changes to our asset class views.”
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White papersThe Pandemic Productivity Shock
Lockdowns will trigger cost cutting and speed technological innovation, but brace for the political tremors.
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White papersUncorrelated Through COVID
The rollercoaster ride of the COVID-19 market crisis presented the toughest challenge imaginable to the concept of “uncorrelated strategies”—did they live up to it?
