Outlooks – Page 79
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - January 2021
This month, we update the probabilities and narrative of our central and alternative scenarios, taking into account 4Q20 developments in vaccinations, fiscal and monetary policies, and (geo)politics. We have a higher conviction on our central scenario and we are raising its probability from 65% to 75%. We are lowering the probability of our downside scenario from 25% to 15%, which remains above historical levels.
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White papers2021 global outlook reassessed
As the Q420 is now closed, we confirm the “financial recovery regime” as our central scenario for 2021 with a higher conviction than in Q320. We expect better corporate fundamentals at a global level going forward. The rebound of EPS growth will eventually validate current asset price levels in the context of low interest rates. This explains our cautious optimism for the coming quarters.
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White papersPodcast: Making the Case for Value
Over the past decade, we have seen that growth investing has had a tremendous run and was considered the first choice in approach for investing in stocks. However, for the last several months and for the first time in quite a few years, market conditions seem to suggest that now value has started to become the more popular option.
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White papersChart of the week – 2020 market wrap
The extraordinary sequence of events that unfolded in 2020 from virus outbreak to lockdowns, then from large-scale stimulus to vaccines, produced unusually broad market gains for most asset classes in absolute terms.
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White papersFranklin Templeton Investment Solutions: Allocation Views
As we enter 2021, financial markets appear to be clinging to a more optimistic view of the world than the one we left behind in 2020. Undoubtedly we have reasons to be more hopeful, but it seems that we still have a greater than usual level of uncertainty over a number of factors that are key to how markets react during the coming year.
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White papersHidden factors: exploring equity market behaviour in 2020
At the beginning of a new year, it’s customary to look both back to the past and forward to the future. This year, it would be tempting to focus on a future in which the coronavirus is finally brought under control, gladly turning our backs on 2020 and consigning it to the annals of history. However, looking at the extreme market events of the past 12 months can provide some valuable insights for investors.
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White papersVaccine Distribution, Administration, Logistics & Mutant SARS-CoV2 Strains
In an effort to bring timely insights during these uncertain times, we are pleased to share an update from Terri Towers, PhD, Senior Healthcare Analyst, who shares her views on the COVID-19 (“Coronavirus”) pandemic.
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White papersHow can social bonds support a sustainable recovery?
Social bonds could help mitigate the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, at least in the short term. While on the surface, most bond issuances appear well-intentioned, all market participants need do their homework to ensure they are directing capital to the right social causes.
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White papersChina’s strategy supports a bullish view on emerging Asia
China’s economic policy focus on domestic and, by extension regional, growth argues for a bullish view on Asian emerging markets in the face of the far-reaching effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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White papersA Recipe for the Next Financial Crisis
It may not come soon or deliver the same shock, but the ingredients that triggered so many predecessors are already coming into view.
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White papersWhat is an impact bond? A specialist fund manager explains
An expert from BlueOrchard – a leading impact investment firm and a member of the Schroders Group – outlines what these increasingly popular assets are and why they matter.
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White papersHydrogen: Back to the future
The UK is the latest country to accelerate plans to develop hydrogen as part of its push to reach net zero. But it is not the first time hydrogen has attracted attention – it has been trumpeted by the scientific community as a possible wonder fuel for around a century. So, what’s changed now?
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White papersA bright end to 2020 for equity markets
After setting record highs in early December, global equities vacillated on market concerns over the resurgence of COVID-19 to end the month with a rebound to new highs. The MSCI AC World index (in US dollars terms) gained 4.5%, taking its rise for 2020 to 14.3%.
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White papersGlobal Innovations Driving Zero-Carbon Cement
Company-level metrics provide only half the picture of zero-carbon cement. Our Emerging Market Equity and ESG teams’ on-the-ground analysis provides the other half.
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White papersA thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets
The deal: the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods, but trade will be affected by new non-tariff barriers such as customs checks and compliance procedures. The deal is lighter concerning trade in services, and in most services sectors providers will need to seek approval on a case-by-case basis with national authorities.
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White papers10 predictions for 2021: The world improves, but do markets already know?
At the start of the year, we expected economic growth to pick up modestly and were encouraged by seemingly diminishing macro risks, such as trade policy. Conversely, we were concerned by relatively full stock valuations and thought that market gains could be limited following a strong 2019.
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White papersSpirit of resilience: Market Risk Insights, Q4 2020
Last year, Albert Camus’s 1947 novel The Plague returned to global best-seller lists as people searched for a deeper understanding of the pandemic convulsing society.
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White papersEurope’s “Man On The Moon” Moments
While 2020 brought many challenges and uncertainties for investors in Europe, there are reasons to be optimistic about the future.
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White papersFrom property to the portfolio: The ESG opportunity and industry trends
Last month, Principal Real Estate Investors hosted a panel of subject matter experts to discuss Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) developments and trends.
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White papersHow sustainability works in private asset investment
We explain why private assets can align with responsible investment just as well as listed assets.
