Outlooks – Page 6
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White papers
Gen AI: The Next Wave
As artificial intelligence tools gather steam, what’s the potential impact on businesses, investors and the planet? It’s been nearly two years since the “ChatGPT moment,” when OpenAI’s flagship chatbot brought the world face-to-face with the power of generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) to gather and interpret information, and communicate its findings to users. The moment represented the culmination of years of AI research and development.
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - July/August 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 24 July 2024
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - July/August 2024
Topic of the Month: How long can the Central Banks’ divergence last
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U.S. election: Policy and positioning
Heading into a contentious U.S. election season, investors need to avoid the noise and remain focused on the factors that will drive markets in the period ahead, including U.S. trade policy (particularly with China), geopolitics (particularly any impact on oil markets), and fiscal deficit management (given the CBO projection that the U.S. budget deficit is set to rise to 122.4% of GDP by 2034).
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White papers
2024 U.S. election: The importance of staying invested
It can be easy for investors to let their political persuasions impact their long-term financial judgment. However, allowing the outcomes of elections, particularly ones as polarized as what investors are facing this fall, to trigger an adjustment to portfolio allocations or even a withdrawal from markets entirely, has historically ...
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White papers
Positioning for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Calls from senior members of the Democratic party finally became too great this past weekend, with President Biden bowing out of the 2024 U.S. Presidential race. He will not be seeking a second term.
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Election 2024: Economics, policy and positioning for a soft landing
The S&P 500 enjoyed a solid start to the year, fueled by the Federal Reserve embracing optimism about inflation without sacrificing growth. During Q2, however, evidence of still sticky inflation has reduced the number of expected rate cuts, weighing on market sentiment and resulting in more modest equity gains.
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White papers
The perfect storm: Deglobalisation’s headwinds
Globalisation - the rising interconnection of the world’s economies and populations, driven by international trade in technology, services, goods as well as the flow of investment and information - is facing at least five different head winds. Let me discuss them in turn and indicate how I believe they could be tackled.
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White papers
Mid-Year Outlook 2024 It’s all about confidence
Restrictive monetary policies and fading fiscal expansion are curbing growth and inflation in major economies. Recessions look unlikely but central banks are starting on a new cycle of rate cuts at a time of divergent growth rates, sticky price pressures, constrained fiscal policy and rising geopolitical risks. Despite the uncertain outlook, markets in some regions are priced for the best outcome. We therefore favour asset allocations that can withstand different scenarios.
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White papers
AI fever: Has it gotten too hot?
Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has gripped the financial markets and shows no signs of loosening its hold.
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White papers
Investment outlook
At the midpoint of 2024, we are focused on a number of risks posed by fissures and fault lines in the economic terrain — and the need to navigate them successfully. Weakening global growth, still-sticky inflation, diverging monetary policy around the globe and growing political uncertainty all add to the uncertain footing. How might investors find their away around these cracks? In our view, the following portfolio themes point in the right direction.
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White papers
Megatrends: Transformative technology
Artificial intelligence (AI), specifically generative AI (GenAI), is poised to affect virtually every sector of the global economy and transform the workforce.
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White papers
Climate inclusion: driving the transition for low income consumers
Climate change is poised to disproportionately impact low-income and vulnerable populations. Global temperature increases, increasingly severe storms, and irregular patterns of drought and rainfall are estimated to push up to 130 million people into poverty by 2030. By 2050, as many as 200 million may be forced to migrate. This highlights the universal nature of climate change; it doesn’t respect borders, impacting vulnerable regions and populations regardless of where emissions originate.
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White papers
Following key elections, where is Europe headed?
Capital Group political economist Talha Khan shares his views on the political shifts taking place across Europe. He also discusses the upcoming US Presidential election and its potential impact on Europe, as well as the tangible concerns of political risk that investors now face.
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White papers
On My Mind: Let’s spend lots of money! US elections and fiscal prospects
In this “On My Mind,” I want to focus on the US fiscal outlook, its relationship to inflation, and the implications for interest rates and bond yields. Let’s start with a snapshot of the US federal govern ment’s fiscal deficit for the past three decades. For the first half of this period, fiscal policy looked fairly prudent, and the deficit averaged slightly more than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
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White papers
Real Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier
The Fed’s campaign against inflation, changes in bank regulations and stress in the office sector have collectively created an attractive investment environment for real estate debt investors, in our view. Commercial mortgages are offering yields not seen since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While capital market conditions are operating effectively for low-risk mortgages, they remain mostly dislocated for higher-risk mortgages, thereby presenting compelling investment opportunities.
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White papers
Five-year investment outlook
Our analysis shows the dispersion of returns across domestic equity and bond markets will decline over the next five years. This suggests investors should consider investing across sectoral lines and allocate more of their capital to corporate bonds.
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White papers
Q3 2024 Outlooks: Opportunities and Risks with the World at a Crossroad
The global economy has continued its momentum, retaining a level of resilience that has withstood a flurry of challenges ranging from tighter monetary policy and borrowing conditions to a rise in geopolitical tensions. The US has powered global growth amid divergent results around the world, and with inflation cooling, central banks have either cut interest rates or signaled their intention to loosen policy.
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White papers
What You Didn’t Know About European Offices
Are European offices broken? We don’t think so. They’re just different.
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White papers
Third Quarter 2024 Market Outlook
PGIM Fixed Income’s Third Quarter 2024 Market Outlook