Outlooks – Page 6
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White papers
India in 2024: a trio of new positive catalysts
2024 will undoubtedly be a year of weaker global growth, largely led by the US and China. Yet we believe the combination of 1) a US soft landing, 2) slowing global inflation and 3) global monetary easing will mean riskier assets perform better. We believe strong returns are possible for Asian equities, especially when GDP growth projections are much higher for Asia ex Japan than for developed market peers.
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White papers
Is US job creation as strong as it looks?
The latest US inflation report showed signs of inflation falling at a slower pace than expected. Inflation data have disappointed twice in a row and are seemingly consistent with firm US employment and wage growth. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we consider what constitutes a strong employment report and how expectations are coloured by what many market participants consider to be normal.
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White papers
A Second Trump Presidency? Potential Economic Effects
President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.
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White papers
2024’s elections around the world: The who’s who and the so what…
Voters from more than 60 countries will head to the polls this year, representing almost half the world’s population. This makes 2024 perhaps the ultimate election year by historical standards. But the act of merely holding elections does not guarantee a free and fair process e.g., Russia’s March elections, nor does it imply consequential change.
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White papers
Opportunities in preferred and capital securities remain attractive
Main takeaways: the Federal Reserve (Fed) should be done raising rates; the U.S. Treasury market term premium should persist; discounted fixed-to-refixed hybrids foster an advantage of indifference to the direction of longer-term treasury rates; and relative values are attractive.
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White papers
Quarterly fixed income perspectives 1Q 2024: A turning point for policy
Themes, outlook, and investment implications across global fixed income markets
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White papers
Consider This: Indian elections 2024
India stands on the precipice of a significant election, with incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a third term. Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute, provides an analysis of factors that could bode well for Modi’s campaign as well as implications of potential demographic shifts in one of the world’s largest democracies.
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White papers
Private assets for the masses: An interview with PEI on the democratization of private equity
The democratization of private equity continues to be a hot-button issue. What were the biggest developments over the last 12 months?
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White papers
Consider This: Canals are becoming chokepoints
The importance of major canals to global trade cannot be underestimated. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis highlights some of the challenges they face, including militant attacks and climate change.
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White papers
ETF investing – How AI and 3D printing are shaping the future of healthcare
Genomic engineering is the manipulation of an organism’s genes by introducing, eliminating or rearranging specific genes using the methods of modern molecular biology. The technology will enable the analysis of patients’ DNA, and the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. And what’s good for patients can also be interesting for investors.
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White papers
Sun setting on the tightening cycle
The Fed has removed its tightening bias, opening the door to rate cuts.
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White papers
EOS 2023 Annual Review
EOS publishes 2023 Annual Review, with full engagement and voting highlights.
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White papers
The Importance of Monitoring Credit Spreads In Positioning Equity Portfolios
On February 5, 2024, the yield spread between the Baa corporate bond and the 10-year Treasury bond sat at 157 bps—just 9 bps wider than the narrowest level seen since 2000.
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White papers
Consider This: Demographics and long-term growth
Conventional wisdom points to young demographics being a driver of economic growth. The reality is more complicated.
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White papers
Listed infrastructure: Factors aligning for renewed investor attention
We believe an attractive entry point for listed infrastructure is emerging, considering the potentially favorable macro environment and the asset class’s attractive valuations relative to broader equities.
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White papers
Expert Aggregation for Financial Forecasting
Machine learning algorithms dedicated to financial time series forecasting have gained a lot of interest. But choosing between several algorithms can be challenging, as their estimation accuracy may be unstable over time. Online aggregation of experts combine the forecasts of a finite set of models in a single approach without making any assumption about the models.
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White papers
What is keeping rates volatility high?
Volatility in fixed income markets remains elevated while it has normalised almost everywhere else. In this weekly edition of Simply put, we ask why has bond volatility remained stubbornly high?
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White papers
Robust Jobs and Tight Credit: Will the Consumer Keep Spending?
Economic reports have been promising so far this year, with consumers shored up by a robust job market. An alien (one that has studied intergalactic macroeconomics) landing on Earth might even wonder why the Federal Reserve isn’t hiking rates given above-2% inflation and low unemployment.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2024
Topic of the Month - Japan equity: top performer in 2023; remains attractive option for 2024
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White papers
Four things to watch ahead of the US elections
This is the biggest election year in world history. Seventy-six countries — home to roughly 4.4 billion people — will hold political contests in 2024.