Outlooks – Page 52
-
White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
-
White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
-
White papersTLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
-
White papersRelaxed financial markets look at Lula’s comeback
The first electoral round was won by former President Lula. However, the incumbent, Bolsonaro, performed better than expected. Their economic agendas differ on a number of issues, while risks are more asymmetric under each candidate. Either could benefit from a robust macroeconomic scenario.
-
White papersCLOs: Up in Quality
Against a challenging macro backdrop, CLOs look attractive given the strong structural protections and incremental yield on offer—but there is a case to be made for staying up in quality.
-
White papersESG Viewpoint – Can mining be a responsible investment?
Its environmental and social impacts can make mining hard to square with a responsible investment approach. As the world shifts away from fossil fuels – a move that increases demand for ‘transition metals’ – we explore the need to think again.
-
White papersThe Meeting Room: Asia ex-Japan, September 2022
Join Jonathan Pines and Sandy Pei for the latest Federated Hermes Meeting Room: Virtual Portfolio Briefing on Asia ex-Japan.
-
White papersMarkets on edge despite Bank of England intervention
Sweeping UK government tax cuts sent shockwaves through financial markets as investors and economists queried the wisdom behind the plan.
-
White papersFixed income investing: the active advantage, in times of interest rate sensitivity
Active fixed income strategies may offer investors numerous advantages over passive index strategies, providing enhanced risk-adjusted performance potential. Investors are still seeking risk-managed returns in the current high inflation and rising rate environment, and we believe active management for fixed income can better help investors pursue their goals.
-
White papersEconomic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors
We put out a cautious Equity Market Outlook three months ago, and after a quarter of worsening economic data and inflation trends we are now even more focused on low beta and high earnings quality.
-
White papersChina: This Time is Different
The Chinese economy is facing its hardest test in over two decades, and it will not come out of it easily.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2022
Geopolitical risks have returned to investors’ radar screens with President Putin’s escalation of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, inflation remains in the spotlight: the latest US reading was concerning, causing yields to rise while equity markets tumbled.
-
White papersFast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing
The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels.
-
White papersFiorino: Can Europe’s banks withstand high-pressure energy disruption?
As Russia threatens to halt gas supplies to Europe, Fiorino looks at the impact of the European energy crisis on financial institutions in the region.
-
White papersA Fresh Approach to Climate Anxiety
Understanding the differentiated macroeconomic impacts of the climate transition can shape better investment and policy strategies.
-
White papersStructural Change in Europe as Funds Take Market Share
In this Q&A, Adam Wheeler discusses the current state of the European private credit market, and how the economic backdrop is creating both challenges and opportunities for investors.
-
White papersU.K.’s Mini-Budget Causes Major Market Moves
The U.K.’s sweeping fiscal package caused widespread disruptions—leading the BOE to intervene and restore market stability—which could lead to more hikes in the near term. Meanwhile, labor stats in the U.S. next week should help show just how far the Fed might go.
-
White papersBraving bear markets: 5 lessons from seasoned investors
This article was originally published July 15, 2022, and has been updated to reflect market conditions.
-
White papersUpheaval in the global FX regime
The global FX regime of the last 20 years has been characterised by a distinct pattern of capital flows. At its core, Asian countries (mostly China) recycled their current account surpluses into USD-denominated FX reserves, in order to weaken their domestic currencies and preserve export-led economic models.
-
White papersGlobal foreign exchange regime faces winds of change
Dollar strength is causing strains, even in developed economies like Japan and Britain. A short-term fix could be a Plaza-style accord to weaken the dollar. Reverse FX wars, with a race to strengthen currencies, are another possibility. Longer-term, momentum may grow for a multi-polar currency regime that pits China ...
