Outlooks – Page 47
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White papersPublic Engagement Report, Q2 2022
EOS at Federated Hermes takes an in-depth look at supply chains and human rights risks. Plus, why curbing methane emissions is critical to tackling the climate crisis, and all the voting season highlights from Europe and North America.
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White papersHigher inflation, recession more likely
In our mid-year Macro Perspectives, our economists discuss whether a stagflation (inflation plus slowing growth) scenario can be avoided, and where investors might find opportunity—or at least temporary shelter.
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White papersClimate Transition: A World of Compromises (Part II)
Raise your eyes on the horizon—beyond the immediate central bank challenges, the lingering impact of COVID, and the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine—to consider three key climate-related issues that investors will wish they had known about 10 years from now.
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives - July 2022
The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after the market sell-off this year, we are exercising caution given greater uncertainty and elevated recession risk.
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White papersFed prayer becomes a plea
The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team opines on what to expect from the Fed, gauges the probabilities of a recession and implications for asset markets.
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White papersFive misconceptions about dividend investing
Our ETF Investment Strategy team takes a closer look into dividend investing.
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White papersWhat the Ukraine crisis means for markets – and the fight against climate change
As the Ukraine crisis continues, we examine the potential implications for the global economy, the transition to net zero and what it all means for investors.
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White papersUS equities: Opportunities amid turbulence
Franklin Equity Group Portfolio Manager Grant Bowers shares his outlook on inflation and recessionary risks and where he’s finding opportunities in US equities amid recent market volatility.
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White papersInvestment in nature-based solutions will be key to net zero
Are forests the next big asset class for sustainability? Robert-Alexandre Poujade argues that nature-based solutions are an underexposed area for investors to support the net-zero transition.
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White papersUS housing: slowdown or meltdown?
Brandywine Global examines the differentiated factors, including unique supply and demand conditions, that currently still support housing prices and should prevent any softening from becoming a full-blown collapse.
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White papersUkraine and the Path to Deglobalization
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading offers a reminder of Ukraine’s millennia-old importance for global trade, helping us understand why today’s conflict could be yet another lasting blow against globalization.
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White papersGas rationing impact on European economy
Russian gas flows to Europe are at a record low level as capacity from Nord Stream 1 has failed to resume fully due to additional maintenance. Gas prices in Europe have jumped again, while EU nations rushed to agree on a coordinated reduction of approximately 15% of gas demand (with country differences) to ensure sufficient gas storage before winter.
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White papersWill the Fed’s QT Trigger a Financial Crisis as Growth Slows?
The outlook for Quantitative Tightening will likely depend on the Fed’s commitment to the tool, and, at the first sign of trouble, it may be quick to course correct.
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White papersAre Carbon Offsets the Next ESG Investing Frontier?
Carbon offsets occupy a relatively small space on the spectrum of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues. But as more countries and companies commit to net-zero carbon emissions goals, they’re steadily gaining attention from investors as a tool to accelerate carbon reductions. Growing demand has fueled record-high prices in some markets.
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White papersIG Credit: Valuations More Attractive, But Uncertainties Loom
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, IG corporate fundamentals appear solid and yields are approaching potentially attractive levels relative to history.
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White papersCan “Friendshoring” Replace the G-20?
Any vision of closer commercial integration among U.S. allies and partners must be as inclusive as possible.
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White papersOn my mind: Are we there yet?
Are we there yet? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged himself carefully at the July press conference; markets heard it as confirming expectations that we are closing in on the terminal rate and that the Fed will likely start cutting again as early as March of next year. Our Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai is not so sure—here are her thoughts:
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
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White papersThe risks around China’s grassroots mortgage ‘boycott’
China is seeing rising numbers of homebuyers stopping their mortgage payments to banks because cash-strapped developers are not delivering the homes they bought off-plan. The question is whether this mortgage ‘boycott’ will result in systemic risk pulling the rug from under the entire financial system.
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White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
