Outlooks – Page 108
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White papers2020: The Road Ahead
From fixed income and equities to real estate and alternatives, Barings’ teams share their predictions for 2020 and views on where the biggest risks and most compelling opportunities may lie.
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White papers2020: Bold Predictions
Will 2020 bring with it the democratization of private equity? A wave of downgrades from investment grade to high yield? Barings’ experts share their bold predictions for the year ahead.
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White papersSolving for 2020; the key themes we anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020.
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White papersSustainable investing is here to stay
Sustainable investing was once viewed as a trade-off between value and ‘values’. Yet today, it’s something investors can no longer afford to ignore. What has changed? More granular data, more sophisticated analysis and shifting societal understanding of sustainability, as well as growing awareness that certain factors – often characterised as environmental, social and governance (ESG) – can be tied to a company’s long-term growth potential.
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White papersStay agile amid diverging scenarios
After enjoying stellar performance this year, investors will increasingly question whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession moving into 2020, thereby ending the longest ever bull market. Or, if growth stabilizes at a low level, and potentially rebounds, the cycle could extend even further.
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2020 Investment Outlook - Be Agile To Cope With Diverging Scenarios
After enjoying stellar performance this year, moving into 2020, investors will increasingly ask whether the global economy will proceed towards a trade war-engineered recession or whether growth will stabilise at a low level and potentially rebound, meaning the cycle could extend even further. In our view, the retreat in global trade is causing a major change in the structure of growth, but does not point to a full-blown recession, especially at a time when cumulative loose policies are gearing up and a partial deal between the US and China is in sight. Monetary and fiscal policy combination, a prominent theme going forward, may extend the current cycle further. While the noise on trade-related issues will be high, a material escalation is unlikely given the upcoming US elections in 2020. However, the path for investors will not be linear. In the short term, market expectations for policy actions have gone too far and need to be adjusted.
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White papersLooking into 2020 with Hermes
2020 will be another uncertain year. Brexit will rumble on, bringing further volatility and polarising the UK political dialogue; China and US relations will remain tense and concern markets, despite a possible partial trade deal being secured before the end of 2019; and the US presidential race will likely unsettle world markets.
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White papersRealistic Assumptions For ESG Integration
Environmental, social and governance aspects are becoming increasingly important. More than 2,000 investors – with almost USD 90 trillion in assets under management – have signed the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (UN PRI). At the same time, this raises a question: what impact do ESG factors have on a portfolio?
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White papersStaying positive: why Asian fixed income makes sense in the face of rising uncertainty
It’s hardly surprising that the uncertainty associated with the on-again, offagain U.S.-China trade talks has continued to weigh on market sentiment. As of this writing, discussions appear to be progressing in a constructive manner—just like they did in July. But we know from our experience this past summer that a high level of unpredictability remains: these negotiations could collapse or gain traction at a moment’s notice.
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White papersWhen investments in Infrastructure Debt embrace ESG standards
The requirement to develop, maintain, upgrade infrastructure projects is constant, even increasing worldwide, and so reflected into a funding demand.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 - 2019
Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will be further exacerbated in 2021 by a deteriorating cyclical environment and still anaemic global trade. Nevertheless, growth is expected to stay in positive territory.
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White papersGreening Fixed Income markets: a challenge of today and tomorrow
Policymakers around the world continue to implement comprehensive strategies to foster sustainable finance.
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White papersBrexit extension will ease uncertainty looming on UK assets
Recent developments and next steps: Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the United Kingdom and the EU will be ratified, leading to an orderly Brexit and the initiation of a transition period during which the United Kingdom will retain most of its access to the EU single market until at least end-2020. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is now greatly diminished.
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White papersStructured Credit: Engaging Risk Tactics
Deal flow remained steady in Q3, keeping primary market spreads range-bound. Against a backdrop of low global interest rates, we have seen increasing investor interest in European CLOs.
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White papersThe Good (Consumer), The Bad (Global Outlook) & The Ugly (Trade)
The IMF downgrades its global growth outlook, the Fed’s Beige Book notes household spending remains positive and a Brexit deal is on the table.
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White papersThe Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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White papersDespite the rise of cross-border distribution, domestic funds continue to have a bright future
Unabated support and growth in Cross Border funds
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Are High Yield Investors Being Compensated for Risks?
In the context of today’s fundamental backdrop and default outlook, spread levels suggest investors are being fairly compensated, relative to other points in the cycle, for the amount of risk they are taking.
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White papersBeyond ESG risk integration: Impact investing
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investment is taking root within the infrastructure investment community. Infrastructure assets have the potential to bring strong social, environmental and economic benefits to society but they are also particularly exposed to ESG risks. Most investment firms active in the space have by now implemented ESG considerations in their investment process.
