Outlooks – Page 104
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White papersInvestment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
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White papersA Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
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White papersApril Macro Dashboard
Long gone are the tales of a V-shaped recovery as the U.S. economy has fallen rapidly into the steepest recession in recorded history. The European economy is experiencing a very sharp contraction as well. There are signs of hope as China’s economy appears to be stabilizing.
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White papersPE Investing at Turning Points in the Market Cycle
Shifting assets from public to private equity in and around recent major downturns has been a rewarding strategy.
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White papersWhy the Covid-19 crisis is different for private assets
Looking for lessons in the past can be valuable, but Covid-19 poses a unique challenge for the financial system. We look at the ways private assets will (or won’t) be affected.
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White papersCoronavirus – Weekly update – 29 April 2020
The COVID-19 caseload has now reached almost 3 million infected cases and there have been over 210 000 fatalities. The death toll is on the decline now in Europe and appears to have plateaued in the US, albeit at a high level. As always, we highlight that caution must be taken in interpreting the data in both the time series and the cross section, given the different approaches to measurement and testing across countries.
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White papersFive themes to show where the COVID-19 crisis is heading
With over 3 million people infected worldwide (Worldometers as of 29th April 2020), the Covid-19 pandemic has created huge economic uncertainty and volatility. However, markets cannot wait for complete clarity on the outlook and, as asset managers, nor can we. Therefore, we have identified six key signposts to help navigate the Covid-19 crisis and make better-informed decisions.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place.
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White papersRoads to recovery from the coronavirus crisis
Will the global economic and market recoveries chart a V, U, W or swoosh-shaped recovery from the coronavirus crisis – or take a completely different course?
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White papersTrends in Private Market Investing
Sean Ward looks at the trends that are emerging across buyout managers and how this is impacting investor sentiment.
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White papersRecovery Scenarios and Emerging Themes
Erik Knutzen shares insights on navigating the range of paths through the recovery and our playbook for capitalizing on investment themes.
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White papersCovid-19 Fixed income - Public credit - the end of beginning
Credit markets have continued to develop in recent weeks as participants digest events and various official intervention strategies, and consider the ramifications for taking credit risk in the future.
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White papersMunicipal Bond Market Update
James Iselin, Neuberger Berman’s Head of Municipal Fixed Income, discusses the potential for a rise in delinquencies and defaults across the municipal bond market.
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White papersOpportunity In Credit Fixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q 2020
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fixed income markets experienced unprecedented shocks, which drove down yields on many government bonds and sharply widened credit spreads. Amid compromised global growth and historic levels of monetary stimulus, we anticipate a potentially long period of zero (or negative) policy rates, with central banks increasingly buying higher-quality assets. With that in mind, we see a compelling opportunity in credit spreads, with an initial focus on quality securities in central bank-supported sectors broadening out to take on more risk as the pandemic runs its course.
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White papersMarket weekly – Chinese equities – ahead of the curve
Year to date, the Chinese market is one of the best performing equity markets globally. Can such performance be sustained for the rest of 2020, however? Senior investment strategist Daniel Morris discusses the outlook with Caroline Yu Maurer, Head of Greater China Equities and Chi Lo, Senior Economist for Greater China, both from our Hong Kong office.
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White papersMarket Commentary - Coronavirus shockwave hits oil complex
As we enter the final week of April the total number of coronavirus cases is growing at about 3% per day. This is a marked slowdown from the peak reached in late March, around 12%. Yet in absolute terms, the number of new daily cases has only been plateauing, at around 80,000 globally
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White papersFutures Shock
Amid unprecedented market dislocations and uncertainty, preparing playbooks for a range of outcomes can help us stay nimble and adaptive.
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White papersCovid-19 update: European high yield market moves
An influx of ‘fallen angels’, which are issuers downgraded to junk bond status by the credit ratings agencies, has impacted European credit markets as a result of the economic fallout from the coronavirus. The movement of these names into European high yield (HY) credit indices has somewhat compensated for ...
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White papersInvestment Lessons From Horror Movies
Recovering markets may offer a few signals about what lies ahead.
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White papersPrivate Debt Through the Crisis
Susan Kasser explores the themes that remain consistent in private debt portfolios through the crisis and those that will likely reassert themselves following the dislocation.
