All Middle East articles
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White papersGCC Banks: A Five-Layer Defense for the Current Environment
A combination of strong fundamentals and sovereign support should help key financial institutions weather the storm.
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White papersLooking beyond conflict: Viewing volatility as opportunity
Investors are climbing a high wall of worries in 2026. With wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, messy trade disputes in the world’s major economic regions, growing fears over the impact of artificial intelligence, and deep political divisions in the United States and elsewhere, it can be difficult to remove emotions from practical investment decisions.
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White papersQ1 2026 Short Duration Commentary
Geopolitical and macro risks dominated headlines and the market landscape as the first quarter ended, driven by the Israeli and U.S attacks on Iran and their aftermath, including Iran’s response and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the…
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White papersFixed Income Outlook 2Q 2026: Steering Through the Turn
Markets experienced a sharp change in direction during the first quarter, but despite reasons for caution, we see paths to opportunity as well.
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White papersEquity Outlook 2Q 2026: Global Growth Holds Firm As Geopolitical Risk Simmers
Persistent macro tailwinds and broadening earnings growth keep us constructive on risk assets through the fog of war.
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White papersBack to those other bricks
With Middle East peace in sight, the S&P 500 should resume its path to 7,500.
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White papersAsia and the energy shock
Asia is exposed to the Middle East conflict and the resulting rise in oil and gas prices. Most countries in the region are net energy importers (Malaysia is a notable exception). Even if the pass‑through to headline inflation remains limited, sustaining cost‑of‑living support to shield household purchasing power will be expensive for governments.
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White papersPotential implications of the Middle East conflict for bonds
The Middle East conflict, while first and foremost a human tragedy, also represents an energy supply shock with potentially significant implications for global growth. In a new paper, Head of Global Sovereign, Inflation and Rates, Cedric Scholtes presents a framework for analysing the war’s fixed income investment implications.
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White papersShifting war realities affect markets
Oil price and equity movements over the past weeks suggest how quickly markets can shift from an overly pessimistic to an overly optimistic scenario and vice versa. This reinforces our view that investors should maintain long-term convictions and avoid areas of high concentration risks.
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White papersOil prices threaten the tax tailwind
Last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill is set to deliver a powerful fiscal tailwind. Yet this stimulus is at risk of being undermined by higher oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict, as higher energy prices effectively act as a tax increase on households. If crude prices settle around $90 per barrel, they could fully erode the benefits from the OBBBA.
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White papersEquity Outlook: Middle East War, Energy Shock Test Fragile Markets
Markets are pricing in a wider range of scenarios as geopolitics and AI reshape the landscape.
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White papersTrump the “paper tiger”. The move from Iran’s implicit leverage to explicit control in the Strait of Hormuz
Markets may be calmer following the ceasefire, but has the underlying risk really gone away?
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White papersGlobal Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2026
US foreign policy became the key variable for financial markets in the first quarter. As the Middle-East conflict expands, oil price shocks could become stagflationary, but it’s too early to know the magnitude. Our base case is that the global economy will remain resilient to this shock—as it has to many others this cycle.
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White papersConflict affecting sentiment
The Eurozone March PMI survey fell during the previous month, indicating businesses are getting worried about the Middle East conflict.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - April 2026
With the Middle East conflict now entering its second month, high energy prices have produced knock-on effects across global financial markets. The US and European breakeven curves surged as markets repriced inflation expectations and the likelihood of central-bank rate cuts.
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White papersWhat are the long-term implications of the Iran war? GEMs Equity
We expect the conflict will prompt many governments to re-assess their energy security.
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White papersMiddle East conflict: Central bank forecast changes
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated sharply, marked by military exchanges and increasingly confrontational rhetoric. Attacks on key Middle Eastern energy infrastructure have heightened the risk of material supply disruptions, amplifying uncertainty across global markets. While there are tentative signs of de‑escalation—including reports that President Trump has ordered a five‑day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power and energy facilities—the situation remains highly fluid, with risks of retaliation and broader supply‑chain disruption still elevated.
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White papersThe supply chain shock no one is talking about
A disruption far bigger than the oil price is unfolding and it’s happening through the world’s most important industrial corridor.
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White papersFive charts that put market volatility in perspective
Fallout from the intensifying war in the Middle East has once again put market volatility in the spotlight.
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PodcastRenewable energy in focus amid the energy shock
What do current events in the Middle East mean for the clean energy sector? How can vulnerability to fossil fuel shocks be reduced?
