Latest White Papers – Page 318
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White papersU.S. Loans: Challenged Market or Veiled Opportunity?
With loan and bond yields currently comparable, we believe—in a somewhat contrarian view to the market—there is a good argument for investing in loans, particularly in the U.S., where the economy appears to be marginally stronger than in Europe.
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White papersRussian ecommerce: a moonshot moment?
During a recent research trip to Russia, we confirmed our view that the nation’s ecommerce industry is a rare gem within the troubled wider economy. As Russia’s economic growth flags and protests become more frequent, we consider whether President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious “National Projects” spending program will manage to boost innovation – particularly in digitisation – and inject life into the Russian economy.
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White papersWill trade tensions reshape the world order?
The protectionist wave will almost certainly have a chilling effect on the global economy. But trade growth was slowing well before the US-China spat. In the latest Ahead of the Curve, we assess whether the tariff war is disruptive or merely accelerating trends already underway. And will we find opportunities in this fragmented global system, or only challenges?
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White papersTime is running out to solve China’s debt bubble
Many investors are focused on the outlook for trade talks with the US, fearing an all-out trade war which would negatively impact global, and especially Chinese, equity markets. But investors underestimate the mounting problems caused by the recent rapid expansion of credit in China. Only radical solutions now remain to resolve the country’s growing credit bubble, says Paul Smillie.
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White papersHow Global Investment Grade Can Help Pension Schemes Deliver Their Promises
With many defined pension schemes in negative cashflow, interest in cashflow-driven investing (CDI) is increasing. We believe the $11.3 trillion global investment grade credit universe offers the best means of maximising potential returns from a core CDI strategy. Moreover, advances in technology allow us to build portfolios more quickly, optimising returns and limiting risk.
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White papersFlashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000
Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.
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White papersHalf-time: Europe ex-UK outperforms in H1
After a difficult end to 2018, European equity markets have powered back over the first six months of this year, buoyed by the dovish pivots of central banks. Against this backdrop, we ask: how has our Europe ex-UK fund fared so far this year, and what can we expect for the rest of 2019?
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White papersChina’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet
China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors and markets worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the renminbi will continue to weaken at the same pace.
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White papersHermes Impact Report, Q2 2019
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were created from a development rather than investment perspective. However, believing they can be a powerful way of identifying impact companies, we created the Hermes SDG Taxonomy earlier this year to clearly demonstrate connections between the goals and investment opportunities.
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White papersPick a Number, Any Number
Among Three Central Rate Forecasts, The Middle Still Feels Right.
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White papersIs a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War?
Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.
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White papersThe Great Disappearing Trade Deal
The Great China Trade Deal evaporated before our eyes last week and investors should stop hoping it back into existence. In the increasingly tense relationship between Washington and Beijing, tariffs, retaliation and escalation are all just part of the furniture now.
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White papersMidyear Bond Outlook: Making Sense of Conflicting Signals
The first half of 2019 was kind to financial markets. Will the good times keep on rolling? In our view, that will depend on whether loosening monetary policy is still an effective way to boost growth.
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White papersSlow global growth compels the Fed to cut interest rates
The Federal Reserve has reduced its policy rate target for the first time since 2008. Economic data in the U.S. have been solid, but global growth is slow and a variety of policy risks hang over the outlook like dark clouds.
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White papersThe Circular Q2 2019: keeping you in the sustainability loop
The Circular dives once more into our recent sustainable-investing commentary and analysis to bring our latest insights on environmental, social and governance (ESG) and impact investing to the surface. Get ready to take the plunge.
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White papersWhat We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think
It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.
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White papersThe FED and the ECB have shifted to an easing mode. The question now is for how long can accomodative monetary policy support growth?
The ECB and the Fed have shifted towards a more dovish stance because of concerns about global growth, the persistence of significant risks and the continued weakness of inflation
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White papersFrance: The Reform Momentum Stays Alive After The Yellow Vest Crisis
Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks.
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White papersFixed Income Charts And Views
A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting pockets of value.
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White papersAsset Allocation Update - July 2019
After sharp drawdowns towards the end of 2018 stock markets are re-approaching their all-time highs. This is despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, the risks of a disorderly Brexit, softening economic data, and professional company analysts cutting their profit forecasts for stocks in every major market. All this, along with simmering trade tensions between the United States and almost every other country in the world.
