Latest White Papers – Page 313
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White papersRecession Angst vs. Recession Realities
Global growth has been at the centre of investor worries, but in some geographies, this is currently more a function of anticipation than hard data. Looking into the fourth quarter of 2019, we would break the world into two groups. Europe and some major emerging markets are seeing weak growth that feels like recession, while the U.S. and other major countries are more at risk of confidence shocks that could overwhelm reasonably strong fundamentals. With our continued overall expectation of a global soft landing, we provide details on our investment views below.
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White papersTotal Portfolio Impact
The investment management industry is experiencing a fundamental change as two long-running trends converge: first, a belief that material environmental, social and governance (ESG) characteristics can be a driver of better long-term investment performance, and second, a demand from clients to understand the social and environmental impact of their portfolio alongside investment performance.
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White papersBeneath the Surface
This quarter, Neuberger Berman’s Asset Allocation Committee Outlook focuses on how surfaces can hide complexity and opportunity. As the S&P 500 Index breaks new records even as U.S. Treasury yields fall in anticipation of rate cuts, we believe it is time to be more cautious in overall stock and bond allocations.
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White papersGlobal Emerging Markets: ESG Materiality, Q2 2019
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the Hermes Global Emerging Markets’ ESG Materiality commentary – a quarterly publication that will demonstrate our engagement activity with portfolio companies and showcase holdings that are creating positive impact aligned to the Sustainable Development Goals. In addition, we will explore an environmental, social and governance theme and its implications for the asset class.
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White papersItaly: Few Ambitions From The New Budget Framework
On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions.
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White papersThe Good (Consumer), The Bad (Global Outlook) & The Ugly (Trade)
The IMF downgrades its global growth outlook, the Fed’s Beige Book notes household spending remains positive and a Brexit deal is on the table.
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White papersHow The Dollar Explains the State of the World
The global economy may be changing more slowly than you might think. How the dollar continues to serve as the global currency standard and what it tells is about the economy and the world.
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White papersCore Matters Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective
2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural forces (e.g. ageing). No matter the economic scenario, FI returns over the next five years are ...
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White papersTrending: Slowbalization, Big Tech, Political Pendulums
Patrick Foulis, business affairs editor for The Economist, discusses the top global economic trends to watch and gives us a glimpse into the inner workings of the 176-year-old publication. See how the sausage gets made, including the importance of hiring intellectual rebels and writing good puns.
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White papersComing of age: 15 years of stewardship services with Hermes EOS
In the 15 years since Hermes EOS was launched, stewardship has travelled from the fringes to the mainstream, with the benefits of engaging with companies on environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities now more widely recognised by investors and regulators.
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White papersThe Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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White papersLiquidity Dilemma Needs A Regulatory Response
A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.
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White papersAI: brave new worlds
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the way we live and work. But while AI has the potential to create efficiencies and boost economic output, it also poses ethical and legal challenges. If the sustainability issues surrounding AI are scrutinised and addressed, we think the technology has the potential to serve both business and humankind – and create investment opportunities along the way.
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White papersSustainable infrastructure: it’s not just about clean energy
Decarbonising existing infrastructure will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reinforce investment returns
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White papersTrump Impeachment Is Likely, But Impact On Financial Markets Would Be Short-Lived
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated. An 80% probability that Trump will be impeached, followed by acquittal in the Senate, which would keep him in office for the remainder of his term, is our base case scenario.
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White papersThe Federal Reserve Doesn't Want You To Call It QE
The three things you need to know this week: the Fed’s balance sheet is set to grow, FOMC participants are split on the forward path and keep an eye out on parameters for ECB purchases next.
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White papersIt’s Technology (Not Trade), Stupid!
Why disruptive innovation drives populism more than globalization. Policymakers and investors need to think long and hard about the coming challenges from technology.
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White papersWebinar: objective danger in the investment environment
Markets may have reached record peaks earlier this year, but the geopolitical environment is fraught and central-bank oxygen may not prop up asset prices for much longer. We expect more outbursts of pent-up volatility going forward as investors face up to the growing risks in this high-altitude market.
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White papersHigh Yield: Rates, Recessions and Relative Value
While there is no shortage of risks to consider in today’s high yield markets—from ESG to the end of the credit cycle—Barings’ Martin Horne describes how taking a contrarian approach can help investors uncover pockets of value
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White papersEmerging Markets Sovereign Debt: Does Active Management Pay?
The performance of Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt can—and does—vary widely from country to country. In this piece, Barings’ Cem Karacadag explores how an active approach can be key to selecting the most attractive opportunities, while also avoiding the bad apples.
