Latest White Papers – Page 304
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White papersFocal Point US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed
We expect the US economy to cool this year. Growth will likely ease from 2.2% to 1.6% because of the full effect of tariffs becoming effective during the first half of the year. The lagged impact of the 2019 rate cuts and that of the additional reduction we expect for Q2 will engineer a soft landing of the economy, despite still substantial headwinds. The Fed will take big steps to adapt its monetary policy strategy to a low-inflation, low-interest rates world. The broad view of this strategy should be clearer by summer, but the dovish bias it will most likely produce will be welcomed by markets.
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White papersRisks Rebalanced - Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q 2020
On Tuesday, January 14, Erik Knutzen, CIO of Multi-Asset Class, Gorky Urquieta, Co-Head of Emerging Markets Debt, and Conrad Saldanha, Senior Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equity, discussed the AAC’s latest views on navigating the current market environment.
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White papersStable Growth, Policy in Transition - Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q 2020
With a stable economy likely to provide a positive environment for credit this year, shifts in monetary policy could contribute to more frequent volatility in fixed income markets, while political developments will be an ongoing risk.
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White papersFiat Money Vs. Cryptocurrencies / Private Vs. Public Digital Currencies…
The first part of this study analysed the competition between USD, RMB and EURO and presented the challenges for China and Europe to develop a genuine international currencies, having the capacity to compete with the USD. However, currency competition goes well beyond the “simple” competition between sovereign currencies (USD, EUR, RMB, JPY, CHF…).
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White papersFX wars vs. Currency Wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. …
The USD is by far the most important international currency, although declining in recent years, especially as regard central banks’ FX reserves. New currencies have emerged (of which the RMB), central banks diversify their portfolios (especially in Asia), while some “old” currencies gain ground (the JPY and gold, to some extent). Moreover, even if two contenders exist at present (the euro and the RMB), the USD is the only currency to be considered as an international currency as regard all its characteristics: reserve currency, invoicing currency, vehicle currency, reference currency …
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White papersStrategic Relative Value – Q1 2020
Persistent central bank liquidity and easing geopolitical tensions should support a continued rally in risk assets this year. However, the significant disconnect between elevated valuations and only modest economic growth means risk assets are vulnerable to a deterioration in sentiment so investors should also maintain some defensive positioning.
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White papersWhat Can German Equity Investors Expect in the Months Ahead?
While the phase one U.S.-China trade deal may provide a near-term boost for German equities, there are a number of risks on the horizon that could introduce volatility in the months ahead—making stock selection as important as ever.
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White papersThe Green Swan: Central Banking And Financial Stability In The Age Of Climate Change
Climate change poses new challenges to central banks, regulators and supervisors. This book reviews ways of addressing these new risks within central banks’ financial stability mandate. However, integrating climate-related risk analysis into financial stability monitoring is particularly challenging because of the radical uncertainty associated with a physical, social and economic phenomenon that is constantly changing and involves complex dynamics and chain reactions.
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White papersGoing Viral: The Coronavirus or a Central Bank Holding Pattern?
Wuhan goes on lockdown while the U.S. shifts trade truce considerations to Europe. Meanwhile, Central banks remain optimistic for strengthening global growth, and we’re vigilant for potential insurance cuts from the BoE next week.
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White papersFlexible credit: six drivers of conviction
What are the key determinants of an active credit fund manager’s decision to invest? From curve and convexity through to sustainability and sizing, we assess six drivers of conviction.
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White papersSpectrum Asset Management Outlook for 2020
Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election.
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White papersEMD in 2020: A year of “alpha,” and the return of the “political economy”
As we end another tumultuous year for emerging markets (EM), it’s a good time to pause and reflect on what the start of the third decade of the 21st century holds for emerging market debt (EMD) investors.
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White papersDelta: our 2020 credit-sector outlook
From electric-vehicle sales to US pharmaceuticals and the strength of European banks, our credit analysts provide their 2020 outlooks for industry sectors.
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White papersWhy fixed-income investors should factor sustainability into investment decisions
Why should fixed-income investors factor sustainability into their investment decisions, and what are the approaches available to them? What drives an impactful engagement with a credit issuer? These are some of the key questions that our clients and prospective investors ask about ESG and engagement in fixed-income markets.
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White papersSpotlight on listed infrastructure - The attractions to pension schemes
Infrastructure forms the backbone of any economy, providing essential services to individual communities and the country at large. For some time, the sectors and businesses that are considered to be infrastructure have been expanding and evolving, beyond what are regarded to be traditional areas.
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White papersFive Multi-Asset Strategies for 2020’s Challenges
The last decade produced great performance across most asset classes. But in the 2020s, we expect investment market returns will be lower and risk harder to manage. Looking forward, a disciplined multi-asset approach will be especially valuable to identify opportunities and help mitigate setbacks.
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White papersEconomic Resilience, Fed And Elections To Drive Us Markets In 2020
2019 proved a strong year for US assets, with US equity markets recording the strongest annual total return since 2013 and the US aggregate bond index up almost 9.0%. In addition, the past decade proved the best ever for the S&P 500 index, which returned 256% overall, well above its historical average. It was also the decade when US equities dominated other markets, with an outperformance of more than 90% versus the MSCI World index.
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White papersTrump’s Trade Triumphs May Not Settle Markets for Long
Trade truce does not necessarily mean trade peace. Despite recent agreements by the U.S. with China and its North American partners, we’re still a long way away from what was recently considered normal, and the risk remains all-too clear at this week’s Davos “After-Party.”
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White papersEliminating gender bias: how to improve corporate diversity
How does gender bias manifest itself in the business environment? In what ways can we attempt to plug the leaky pipeline? And how can we improve diversity on corporate boards?
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White papersCore Matters - Germany’s fading shine
The investment case for Germany is dwindling. Following the GFC, Germany’s annual growth outperformed the rest of the euro area in from 2010 to 2017 by 1.2 pp on average. That said, in 2018 German growth underperformed and is expected to do so also in 2019 and 2020.
