Latest Manager Research – Page 77
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White papersLDI market review and outlook – February 2025, political risks clash with bond vigilantism
Political and monetary policy uncertainty weighed upon markets in the fourth quarter of 2024, with multiple ‘live’ central bank meetings creating binary risk and political regime change for France, Germany, and vitally, the US.
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White papersEuro high-yield – There is more to come!
Over the last two years, the euro high-yield segment has performed well, with relatively low volatility. It has shown resilience to both external shocks and negative idiosyncratic events within the high-yield universe. We think this demonstrates that the segment is now more mature and of better intrinsic quality than a few years back.
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White papersTrump 2.0: Impact of tariffs on growth and inflation
The new Trump administration’s opening salvo in the trade war represents a significant shock to growth that could potentially plunge Mexico and Canada into a deep recession while exacerbating the malaise in China. If tariffs are implemented, U.S. growth would likely to be negatively impacted, and inflation could accelerate in the near-term. The greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability, making diversification essential for managing portfolio risk and seizing investment opportunities.
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White papersA More Commodious Curve
By fundamentally changing incentives, a normalizing yield curve makes the bond market much more friendly to investors.This time last year, we were urging investors to “Make Your Money Move.” Too much cash was sitting in portfolios, in our view. The 5%-plus interest it was earning looked set to decline, making it less attractive than equities or bonds over anything longer than a six-month time horizon.
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White papersNo Need to Stress About Less Distressed
Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, the distressed credit landscape has been substantially reshaped by regulatory changes, shifts in economic cycles and the growing influence of alternative investment strategies. This article explains why the economic and market trends of the past 15 years mean outright distress has become rarer and asks, are there other areas of the credit markets where insurers can look for a similar return profile?
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White papersTariffs Are Here: What Does That Mean for Private Equity?
We believe investments in private equity may be less affected by a tougher U.S. tariff regime than the overall economy.
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White papersThe Golden Age of Customized AI Chips
As demand for training large-scale AI models shifts to delivering more precise inferencing capabilities, the race to build application-specific chips is heating up.
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White papersHow AI and data modeling give real estate investment professionals a new superpower
In the spring of 2020, Las Vegas was a ghost town. With the COVID-19 pandemic in full swing, casinos and restaurants were shut down, sending the city’s unemployment rate soaring to the highest in the nation.
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White papersEuropean Insurance Regulation in 2025: Investment Implications
We expect a transformation of the insurance regulatory landscape through 2025. Solvency UK reforms and the comprehensive review of the European Union’s (EU) Solvency II regulation offer new perspectives on risk management and capital efficiency. In addition, sustainability frameworks are set to continue developing at a fast pace, requiring insurers to stay abreast of changes to reporting, fund-disclosure and transition-risk requirements. In this article, we survey some of the key developments ahead and note their investment implications.
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White papersGlobal preferred and capital securities remain attractive
The Federal Reserve (Fed) should be cutting rates more in 2025, but most likely not before a pause to assess the policy footings of the returning Trump Administration.
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White papersNavigating tariffs: February macro and asset class views
We reiterate our positive view on stocks and bonds. Earnings are coming in healthily, growth is solid, inflation is still trending lower, and global central banks continue to ease policy. We like to keep it simple.
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White papersScenarios, risks and macroeconomic forecasts
Main and alternative scenarios, and Macroeconomic forecasts as of 24 January
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - February 2025
Topic of the Month - What Trump 2.0 means for the economy and markets
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White papersRobust fundamentals should prop up emerging market debt
Many emerging market economies have robust fundamentals: strong external demand, stabilising inflation and monetary policy easing, While their GDP growth is expected to outpace that of their developed market peers, there could be some headwinds in the first few months of 2025 from renewed uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s rate cutting cycle, the Trump administration’s policy agenda, the outlook for geopolitics and a strong US dollar.
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White papersCore Matters: AI Winning and losing countries
Our Core Matters series provides thematic research on macro, investment, and insurance topics
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White papersAssessing Sovereigns’ Progress Towards Net Zero for Fixed Income Investors
Is the US on track to achieve net zero emissions by 2050?
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White papersMarket Update: Geopolitics, Rare Minerals, and the Polar Silk Road
Donald Trump is back as the President of the United States and has quickly implemented controversial policies that challenge the global order and traditional conventions. Among the many eye-catching headlines Trump has expressed desires to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal and has even suggested that Canada become the 51st American state.
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White papersThe opening salvo in Trump trade war two
Markets were recently rattled by three executive orders announcing tariff increases on Mexico, Canada, and China, marking an opening salvo of President Donald Trump’s trade war. With Europe likely next in line, uncertainty remains high—despite a 30-day delay on tariffs for Mexico and Canada—fueling further market volatility.
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White papersAn Early Look at the Implications of Tariffs and a Trade War
After the trade war’s opening salvoes, tensions seem set to last for some time.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - February 2025
Markets: a tug of war between inflation fears and optimism
