Latest Manager Research – Page 129
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White papersA fresh look at thematic investing
Thematic strategies have had a challenging time in 2022, with many factors combining to unsettle markets. Higher inflation, greater geopolitical risks, and uncertainty about the economic outlook have affected the valuations of many companies we believe will benefit from key long-term trends. In our view, their prospects are undiminished.
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White papersInvestment Institute Outlook 2023
Following a highly challenging year, our expectation for 2023 and 2024 is to finally see inflation retreat against a backdrop of global growth slowing to its softest – barring the pandemic – since 2009. But while we anticipate a challenging road ahead, we expect a slow recovery emerging in 2024.
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White papersREAL ESTATE’S PUBLIC QUADRANTS: Increasingly attractive, as most of the risks are already priced in
Dark clouds of a recession hang over investment markets with the Federal Reserve continuing to tighten monetary policy. Markets are pricing for Fed funds to approach 4.5% by year end, possibly higher in 2023 moving into restrictive territory.
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White papersESG Viewpoint: The challenges of assessing physical climate risk
Much of the investor focus on climate risk to date has been on managing ‘transition risk’, defined as the financial risk associated with changes in areas such as regulation, sentiment, or technology on the route to decarbonisation.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - December 2022
United States: Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, lifting 2022 average projections. However, our call for 2023-24 forecast has not changed significantly, with restrictive monetary policy dragging growth well below potential
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - December 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersLula is back and already scoring goals
Lula netted a goal in Egypt at COP27 in the fight against climate change. However, it was an own-goal on the spending front that unsettled the markets and threw doubt on expectations of a prudently populist policy direction. We still believe Lula’s policies will be of a centre-left nature, with the help of the markets, though risks have risen.
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White papersRecent developments do not change our expectations for the Russia-Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine will continue to dictate Europe’s prospects in 2023. It will shape local and EU politics, energy security, industrial policy, and international relations. In this article, we outline our expectations for the next phase of the war and offer an optimistic prospect for peace negotiations to lead to a cessation of hostilities in the second half of the year.
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White papersEuropean fixed income: the difficult equation if the energy crisis persists
Beyond the impact of domestic economic variables, euro rates are determined by the energy crisis and political monetary choices. The combination of a new regime of higher energy prices and persistent expansionary fiscal policy could lead to a debt supply shock and persistent inflationary pressures.
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White papersDefensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual increase in risk exposure later in the year
”Global slowdown amid still elevated inflation to characterize most part of 2023.”
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White papersWhen fiscal policy puts the European institutions under pressure
“The new governance proposed by the Commission goes in the right direction, but risks of failing are high.”
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White papersThe Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
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White papersHardening Borders: Opportunities in Security, Health and Trade
Seeking the potential beneficiaries of a new age of deglobalization and insecurity.
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White papersAn Emerging Opportunity
If you are one of the many investors looking positively at high yield bonds, you might want to consider emerging markets debt, too.
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White papersThe Rise of GP-Led Secondaries
As private equity investors scramble for liquidity in this volatile climate, more general partners are orchestrating transactions in the secondary market.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2022
We believe the Fed would keep rates in restrictive territory in the near term. This, coupled with concerns over earnings, allows us to stay cautious on risk assets but with select opportunities in US equities, businesses with strong balance sheets, and quality, value and dividend oriented stocks.
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White papers2023 infrastructure outlook: Climate, macro drivers create tailwinds
ClearBridge Investments expect dire need for infrastructure spending to underpin growth for the next decade and beyond.
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White papersDisruptive Technology Views: Web2 network effects vs. Web3 crowd effects—the coming shift in value drivers
In this issue of Disruptive Technology Views, we explore the megatrend “expanding power of the crowd”; explain Web3 “tokenomic” supply; and introduce “QuantaVenture” capital, a new approach to venture capital.
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White papers5 things to know about the future of semiconductors
How fast things can change: there was a major shortage of semiconductors at the start of the pandemic, and now the industry is grappling with too much inventory in parts of the supply chain. This has led to a sell-off in semiconductor stocks and prompted questions about the depth and duration of this downturn.
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Positive but tempered return expectations
There were few places to hide in 2022. Inflation, monetary policy tightening and geopolitical risks marked a stark contrast to the drivers of returns in 2020 and 2021; the backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. From low to high inflation, and from low to high interest rates, returns suffered as markets adjusted to the new paradigm.
