Fixed income markets should benefit from continued central bank easing in 2026. We expect lower interest rates in the US as policymakers respond to weaker labour market trends, and lower rates in Europe because of further declines in inflation.
Despite no shortage of challenges and obstacles, returns across fixed income asset classes have been largely positive in 2025, with income levels a major contributing factor.
We see a continuation of the diversification trend seen in 2026. Fixed income investors may be underestimating the risk stemming from US expansionary fiscal policy. We see opportunities in inflation break-evens, and yield curve steepening later in the year. Quality credit becomes a core allocation for fixed income investors, thanks to sound fundamentals and a better risk-return profile compared to Treasuries. European bonds remain a key call for 2026, with a focus on peripheral bonds and investment grade credit, particularly in financials.