All Fixed Income articles – Page 106
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H1 2019 - Emerging Markets Charts & Views: Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility
Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity, bonds in hard currency and in local currency) with a medium to long-term view.
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Brexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in
Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit deal: the Irish border backstop. This agreement is aimed at getting the U.K. Parliament to accept the Brexit deal previously rejected in January.
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2019 long-term capital market expectations
We believe the global growth outlook is improving, supported by fiscal stimulus around the world, the pro-growth policies of the incoming US administration and stabilized growth in China. We also see inflation hovering in the moderate zone for the next five to 10 years.
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Doing the Math on Women’s Empowerment
No one organization is responsible for the advancement of women, and that means every organization is. Women’s empowerment starts with education. It continues with the ability to earn an equitable living, especially in fields where women are underrepresented, and crests with women playing leadership roles at work or owning their own businesses.
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A dovish ECB, a little relief for the banking sector
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new series of TLTROs starting in September 2019 and changed its forward guidance, with a commitment not to hike rates this year.
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Monetary Policy’s Effect on EM Debt
Rate expectations have changed materially across emerging and developed markets in the first quarter of 2019. What does this mean for emerging markets debt? Barings’ Ricardo Adrogué weighs in.
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Hedging Repo Exposure in the Treasury Basis with One-Month SOFR Futures
Learn how CME One-Month SOFR futures can be used as an effective tool for hedging Treasury overnight repo exposure.
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Big Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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Weightlifting China - how big will it get?
In this paper we look at how investing in China stands currently and a number of possible ways that this might evolve over time.
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EM Debt: Navigating a Shifting Macro Backdrop
After a rocky 2018, the picture may be brightening for emerging markets debt. From rising rates to trade wars, some of last year’s headwinds look to be receding, at least for now. Barings’ Ricardo Adroguè and Omotunde Lawal highlight opportunities they’re currently seeing.
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360 – Fixed Income report, Q1 2019
To be considered relevant, a factor must first and foremost be backed by ample empirical evidence. In the absence of such evidence, academic research on multi-asset factor premiums could suffer from ‘p-hacking’ (or ‘data mining’). Recent research by Robeco uses new and previously unused deep historical financial data. The results allay any p-hacking concerns.
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Asset Allocation Update - Much ado about equities and credit
Equities and corporate bonds often do well together. Over the past 20 years the “beta coefficient” between credit to equities has been 0.5 in both the US and Europe; that is to say, for every 1% rise (or fall) in equity prices, credit markets have tended to return (or weaken) 0.5%.
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Market Perspectives - Patience is a virtue
Sunny spots are rare this winter. Economic data in in Europe and China have continued to underwhelm. Key euro area indicators including PMIs, Ifo and Sentix are at multi-year lows, following a sharp contraction in industrial production in Q4. China reported a slump in trade and the slowest annual growth in three decades.
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The inflation story: 2019 and beyond
In this issue of Ahead of the Curve, we assess the prospects for inflation in the US and the eurozone.
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EM Debt—A Brightening Picture?
Barings’ Ricardo Adroguè and Omotunde Lawal highlight opportunities they’re seeing from Mexico and Brazil to more challenged geographies like Turkey and Argentina—and provide insight into how they’re thinking about political hotspots like Venezuela.
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An Underappreciated Subset of High Yield
For investors willing to surrender a nominal amount of yield in favor of greater protection given a default, global senior secured bonds can be an attractive option in a recessionary environment.
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An Update on our Global Macro ESG scores
Highlights six case studies of changing country scores in Global Macro Views.
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CIO view The Fed Will Hike Again Because … It Can
No more rate hikes this year? Sonal Desai, our Fixed Income CIO, makes a different case.
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China: Looking at Growth Past the Trade War
China’s growth is decelerating, it is loaded with debt and is involved in a high stakes trade war with the United States. Despite these issues, China’s economy appears to be holding up better than one might have expected. In fact, China’s growth could even accelerate in 2019 in response to aggressive monetary easing.
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White papers
An Underappreciated Subset of High Yield
For investors willing to surrender a nominal amount of yield in favor of greater protection given a default, global senior secured bonds can be an attractive option in a recessionary environment.