Amundi Asset Management

2019 Top 400 ranking: 9http://www.amundi.com

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Amundi

How to play the oil price swings

• Oil price: We confirm our target price for the next 12 months in the range of $60-70 per barrel. Geopolitical risks have pushed the price up above 70$ per barrel in the past weeks but the overshooting phase has been suspended by speculations of a potential policy shift by Saudi Arabia and Russia to revive production. The issue will be probably discussed in the next OPEC meeting in June.

• Inflation: The recent increase in oil price is expected to have very limited impact on core inflation as the rise in oil price is perceived as temporary. The “base effect” on headline inflation does not alter the inflation environment, which remains benign at a global level.

• Growth: On growth impact, there are winners and losers. Higher oil prices are having large redistributive effects (from sector to sector and country to country). Higher oil prices are weighing on the purchasing power of households, while businesses are seeing an erosion of their profit margins. Having said that, we don’t see risks of recession driven by the oil price creeping higher, as the economic costs are expected to be temporary.

• Investments: In this maturing phase of the cycle, which remains mildly favorable for risk-assets but with limited directional conviction, the resilience of the oil price may open opportunities for relative value exposures i.e. a preference for the energy sector in the equity space and in US HY, unless there are significant deviations from the current OPEC policy which would require a reassessment of the investment case.

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Head Office
90, boulevard Pasteur
Paris
75015
France
Company website:
http://www.amundi.com
Year Founded:
2010
No. of investment offices worldwide:
6

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  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

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    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019

    Global Investment Views - September 2019

    White papersWed, 4 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now. 

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    White papersSun, 1 Sep 2019

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  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.

    White papersTue, 27 Aug 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

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