All Commentary articles – Page 73
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White papers
Shanghai’s lockdown – What might it mean for global supply chains?
A prolonged Covid-lockdown of Shanghai could cause longer-than-expected disruption to global supply chains and raise inflationary pressure. As one of China’s largest hubs, Shanghai’s manufacturing and transport capacity is simply too big to be replaced elsewhere.
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White papers
Alternative Data: Workforce Recovery and the Great Resignation
More displaced workers seem ready to come back into the labor force, but employers may need to watch their highly compensated “stayers.”
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Podcast
CLOs: Finding Value in Turbulent Markets
Co-Head of Structured Credit, Melissa Ricco discusses the current state of the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market. She provides insight into the year-to-date performance of the asset class, the current credit quality picture, and what risks the team is monitoring.
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White papers
Quick Thoughts: China—Separating Myth From Reality
Chief Market Strategist Stephen Dover explores five myths about China—and why it remains misunderstood in West.
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White papers
How Ukraine Mission Creep Will Fuel the Next Inflation Wave
And that’s on top of the other risks from war aims that are turning ever more resolute, expansive, and vague.
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White papers
Hold tight for the Chinese demand shock: faith over fear
The extended lockdown in Shanghai and other cities have shattered market confidence, sending Chinese equity market down again over the month. Taking into account the damage of the zero-Covid policy to the Chinese economy, we expect a recession in Q2 and full-year growth to undershoot the government target by a wide margin (Amundi forecast 3.5% versus the 5.5% official target).
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White papers
French presidential election: Macron’s victory provides continuity but lacks political support
The incumbent president’s re-election avoids an unpredictable political phase for France. Although Emmanuel Macron provides stability from an economic and a geopolitical standpoint, his narrower electoral base might be an issue in implementing his reform agenda.
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White papers
Q2 2022: A late cycle with a greater focus on inflation
The shift to an inflationary late cycle has been confirmed with greater conviction and a focus on higher inflation (and rates). Economic momentum is still decelerating at a global level but with tentative signs of stabilisation.
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White papers
Rising Inflation is Not All Bad News for Profit Margins
Concerns over companies’ profit margins continue to mount as the U.S. economy faces the highest inflation since the 1980s. However, we find that some sectors’ margins actually increase in high inflation.
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White papers
Hydrogen: Acting today for tomorrow’s net zero economy
CPR AM has been a committed climate player for several years now and has been innovating to offer investment solutions addressing the climate transition across all asset classes.
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White papers
Real estate: Going against the crowd
The pandemic has been a positive catalyst for some sectors, like logistics, but those associated with an agglomeration of people, including retail, hospitality and leisure, have been at the sharp end. This has created a pricing opportunity for investors that are prepared to invest against rather than with the crowd into sectors like hotels, which have suffered as a result of forced closures.
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White papers
Inflation: considerations for real assets
Inflation concerns have been front and centre in conversation for global investors and consumers alike in recent months. Since the beginning of the pandemic, supply-side constraints in the face of strong demand have created disequilibrium, driving inflation higher, and now the conflict in Eastern Europe will likely exacerbate that risk by boosting commodity prices further.
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White papers
Macron 2.0: More Europe, More Fiscal Stimulus
Investors had remained confident in the run-up to France’s presidential election, so Emmanuel Macron’s win had little effect on financial markets this week. But his convincing victory came as a relief to pro-European political forces in France and across Europe, for understandable reasons: his opponent, Marine Le Pen, is a long-standing Eurosceptic and friendly towards Russia’s President Putin. Her victory, amidst Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would have sent shockwaves through Europe (as referred to in Russia’s Invasion: Eurozone Recovery Delayed but not Derailed).
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White papers
Europe Outlook: A French Economic Evolution
Franklin Mutual Series’ Katrina Dudley sees President Emmanuel Macron’s re-election as a positive for the French economy and regional equity markets over the longer term.
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White papers
Listening for the Tectonic Shifts
Salient developments will shape financial markets over the next year, but listen for sounds of more structural shifts in the economic and political order as well.
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White papers
Opportunities Persist in European Real Estate Despite Geopolitics
The duration of the Ukrainian conflict and its macro-economic impact on the rest of the world remains key to assessing market pricing prospects—but the current significant property yield bond spread will soften any fallout. The Barings Real Estate team discusses.
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White papers
Upside potential: The case for European real estate
With healthy fundamentals and attractive valuations, European real estate securities, in our opinion, are positioned to deliver meaningful relative real returns despite rising interest rates and slower growth.
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White papers
Just What Will Break First?
Tighter policy will eventually tame prices, but it’s still hard to see a U.S. recession anytime soon.
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White papers
More China Lockdowns May Bring More Slowdowns
China’s zero-COVID policy should be a significant headwind to growth, with its impact likely weighing more on consumption than production. Nevertheless, more logistical delays could disrupt manufacturing activity in the months ahead and add to global inflationary pressures.