All Commentary articles – Page 72
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
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White papersThe risks around China’s grassroots mortgage ‘boycott’
China is seeing rising numbers of homebuyers stopping their mortgage payments to banks because cash-strapped developers are not delivering the homes they bought off-plan. The question is whether this mortgage ‘boycott’ will result in systemic risk pulling the rug from under the entire financial system.
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PodcastNavigating the journey to net zero
The transition to net zero is accelerating, and we believe this stands to create significant value for investors, going forwards.
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Podcast*The promise of RNA tech for pest control and beyond*
In the race to feed a growing world population effectively as well as develop environmentally sustainable crop protection solutions, messenger RNA technology – the basis for many successful Covid vaccines – looks particularly promising. Applications can eventually extend to biological solutions for other zoonotic diseases, but also chronic and genetic illnesses.
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White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
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White papersTowards new fiscal rules in Europe
After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central Banks committing to tame inflation, puts the delicate fiscal and monetary equilibrium under the spotlight. When facing a higher inflationary regime, we call for a new set of fiscal rules designed to overcome the limits of the old overly rigid one size-fits-all framework.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
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White papersFrom consumer gadgets to medical devices
The distinction between consumer and healthcare devices is becoming less pronounced in light of a recent trend whereby more consumers are using medically-proven health monitoring tools, and more non-patients are using medical devices. Investors in this market should be aware of how competition is developing.
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White papersItaly swimming in uncertain waters as PM Draghi resigns
Given the resignation of Prime Minister (PM) Draghi, what scenarios does Italy face?
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White papersHarnessing technological trends within infrastructure
Disruptive technological changes are already shifting the ways in which consumers, businesses and governments behave, and this is evolving at an unprecedented rate. Innovations in a diverse range of industries have not only unleashed new technology applications, but also uncovered new intersections across different fields and sectors.
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White papersZero-Covid weighs on China’s growth in Q2
A weak second quarter for China’s economy, with GDP growth narrowly avoiding contraction, might mark the low for this cycle (disregarding the pandemic-related dip in Q1 2020). However, even with intense policy support for the economy and less stringent Covid restrictions, any recovery looks set to be gradual at best, leaving 2022 growth short of the official 5.5% target.
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White papersUK housing shortfall – crisis or opportunity?
There is a saying that an Englishman’s home is his castle. Although not all UK housing is medieval, it is starting to creak with age. The UK has the oldest housing stock in Europe. Nearly 40% of residential property was built before the end of the Second World War. More than one in five dwellings has been standing for more than a century.
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White papersUnwavering Resolve
Central banks are increasingly worried they might be losing an inflation battle that could now be generational, so expect them to get much more aggressive to catch up.
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PodcastForgo FOMO: Growth Investing for the Long Term
In light of the swings in today’s market environment, investors are shifting their asset allocation decisions to accommodate its volatility. As they grapple with what the options are, we look to growth stocks, which we believe have the potential to outperform the overall market over time though may require a higher risk tolerance.
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White papersConsumer demand for the quantified self Consumer demand for the quantified self
The first conventional quantified self device, counting users’ steps over the course of the day, was launched in 2009. Since then, a number of world-leading brands have entered this rapidly-growing market and burgeoning investment trend.
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White papersEconomic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors
We see increasing likelihood of a recession, but even if we avoid one, we think the coming months are going to feel like a recession as the decline in stock market valuations in the first half of the year are likely followed by a decline in corporate earnings in the second half.
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White papersBraving bear markets: 5 lessons from seasoned investors
Stock markets around the world have entered bear territory. The MSCI ACWI slid over 20% for the six months ended June 30, 2022. Today, many investors are focused on the likelihood of recession and more pain ahead.
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White papersWhen short term pain can bring long term gains
2022 has not been a great time for bonds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index both hit historical lows, returning -13.9% and -9.1%, respectively, in the first 6 months of 20221 . Meanwhile, risky asset classes also sold off significantly, which has led to many investors questioning the role of bonds as a diversifier to equities.
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White papersBetter health through the quantified self
Better and earlier diagnostics are key to moving from curing disease to preventing sickness entirely. Smart devices and fitness trackers stand to play a significant role in this advancement.
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White papers5G: Worry-Free Warranty Goes Mainstream
As adoption of connected technology increases, so does the case for device insurance. What opportunities could this bring?
