All Brexit articles – Page 3
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White papersEconomic and Property Overview: Q2 2019
There is growing evidence to suggest that the UK economy slowed in the second quarter, the ONS recorded a 0.3%m/m rise in GDP in May, which partially reversed the 0.4%m/m contraction in April. The upturn in the monthly rate was driven by a recovery in car production which declined by 45% in April after factories temporarily shut down production around the original Brexit date.
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White papersAsset Allocation Update - July 2019
After sharp drawdowns towards the end of 2018 stock markets are re-approaching their all-time highs. This is despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, the risks of a disorderly Brexit, softening economic data, and professional company analysts cutting their profit forecasts for stocks in every major market. All this, along with simmering trade tensions between the United States and almost every other country in the world.
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Asset Manager NewsAmplified: There’s more than one side to any investment story
We are now in the tail end of the second quarter of an already eventful year, with investors facing a range of stark choices.
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White papersInterpreting Brexit – impact of a hard or soft outcome
The UK’s departure from the European Union is still up in the air, despite setting a new date in October for leaving There remains no clarity on where the country will stand in terms of a deal by the time the formal process is triggered When the UK finally ...
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White papersEuropean elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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White papersGerman Equities Present Opportunities to Combat Headwinds
In this Q&A, Rob Smith, Manager of the Barings German Growth strategy, shares his thoughts on how German equities are positioned to combat various headwinds, and which sectors the team expects future growth to come from.
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White papers
Liquidity Insights: Euro FX Responds to Brexit, U.S. Inflation
There are many factors that can influence FX exchange rates, including event risk and fundamental economic data. To manage such risk, traders have often turned to futures and options. Recent events around the world have caused dramatic moves in exchange rates, particularly for currencies impacted by the chaos of Brexit.
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White papersEconomic and Property Overview: Q1 2019
Economic growth was relatively buoyant at the start of the year, output grew by 0.5%mom in January and by 0.2%mom in February, offsetting the 0.4% contraction in output in the final month of 2018. However, much of this growth spurt was driven by temporary factors such as a pick-up in manufacturing activity from firms stockpiling goods to shield against a disruptive Brexit.
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White papersBrexit And UK Defined Benefit Funding
Immediately following the EU referendum, financial markets downgraded medium-term growth expectations for the UK. Sterling weakened, long-dated government bond yields fell, and UK equity assets fell relative to international equities. Two-and-a- half years on we can see that this weakness has not unwound.
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White papersBrexit: an agreement is now more likely, but be aware of a no deal risk, not priced in
Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit deal: the Irish border backstop. This agreement is aimed at getting the U.K. Parliament to accept the Brexit deal previously rejected in January.
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White papersWhere Are We In The Brexit Process?
Despite the rapidly approaching deadline for the UK leaving the European Union, much remains up in the air. Trying to gauge the long-term economic impact is difficult, but we are seeking to minimise unwanted risk in our portfolios.
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White papersUK Real Estate Outlook Edition 1H19
Challenging year ahead for UK real estate as retailer woes continue
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White papersBrexit Endgame: Interest Rate Scenarios
The UK parliament holds a series of Brexit votes over the next week that could have wide-ranging implications on interest rates. We look at some scenarios.
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White papersBrexit Do-Over?
Will Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposal win the day for Brexit or will there be another referendum? The British pound is caught in the middle.
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White papersBig Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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White papersWhy SONIA is bored of Brexit
Are you Brexit-Bored or Brexit-Engaged? British financial markets are taking sides, too, in this messy divorce between the UK and European Union.
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White papers360 – Fixed Income report, Q1 2019
To be considered relevant, a factor must first and foremost be backed by ample empirical evidence. In the absence of such evidence, academic research on multi-asset factor premiums could suffer from ‘p-hacking’ (or ‘data mining’). Recent research by Robeco uses new and previously unused deep historical financial data. The results allay any p-hacking concerns.
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White papersEconomic and Property Overview: Q4 2018
GDP growth moderated in the final quarter, after a strong summer; output grew by 0.3% for the three months to November, down 30bps on Q3. As expected, the service sector accounted for the largest share of growth adding 0.24 percentage points, the construction sector also contributed to GDP growth, while the production sector knocked 0.12 percentage points off growth owing to weak activity in the manufacturing sector, which suffered the longest period of month-on-month output falls since the financial crisis.
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White papersBrexit Deal Voted Down: What Happens Now?
Developments and scenarios ahead: The Brexit deal defeat in Parliament was expected, but the size of the loss was not – the result of 432 votes against versus 202 for was quite a surprise. In light of the larger-than-expected scale of the defeat, we have revised upward the probability of a no-deal Brexit (20% vs. 15% previously).
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White papersFixation on Brexit misses the bigger picture
Reflecting on 2018, global equity markets have lurched from optimism to pessimism. At the beginning of the year there was a complacent belief in synchronised global growth. But cut to the fourth quarter and many strategists are speculating whether the United States might soon enter a recession and how Chinese economic growth is slowing as they try to get a grip of their own excessive debt levels.
