Corporate overview
AEW is one of the world’s largest real estate asset managers with $83.9/€77.6bn of assets under management as at 31 March 2025. AEW has over 860 employees, with its main offices located in Boston, London, Paris and Singapore and offers a wide range of real estate investment products including comingled funds, separate accounts and securities mandates across the full spectrum of investment strategies. AEW represents the real estate asset management platform of Natixis Investment Managers, one of the largest asset managers in the world.
AEW is one of the leading European real estate investment managers with €36.7bn of real estate assets under management in Europe as at 31 March 2025. With over 520 employees operating from 11 locations throughout Europe, AEW has a long track record of successfully implementing core, value-add and opportunistic investment strategies on behalf of its clients. In the last five years, AEW has invested and divested a total volume of c.€15bn of real estate across European markets.
For more information on AEW, visit www.aew.com
Sector forecasts
Industrial:
The European macroeconomic outlook has further moderated for the second half of 2025 and 2026. However retail sales are projected to remain positive over the next five years. Despite the most recent reductions and pauses, tariffs triggered a spike in trade policy uncertainty. This is expected to push up supply chain pressures. European logistics occupiers are likely to further deepen their operational focus from just-in-time to just-in-case to ensure continuity. This might trigger a higher demand for logistics space. E-commerce remains a central theme in logistics take-up. However, a closer look at take-up confirms a broader based support for take-up across sectors, as shown below. This diversified base of logistics space users should offer resilience in future take-up regardless of the ultimate impact of tariffs. Our prime 2025-29 rental growth forecasts of 1.9% p.a. across our 37 covered European logistics markets is down due to slower economic growth, weaker take up and higher vacancy rates. As new supply is expected to moderate, year-end 2024 European average vacancy rate of 5.1% is projected to come down gradually to 3.7% by 2029.As in other sectors, higher interest rates pushed prime logistics yields from 3.7% to 5.3%. After the 2022-24 repricings and our revised base case with less bond yield tightening, prime logistics yields across all markets are expected to move in by only 30bps by 2029. This means current income and rental growth will be key for returns. As a result, total returns across European logistics markets are estimated at 7.9% p.a. for 2025-29 in our Mar-25 base case, making it the second most attractive sector after offices. CEE and UK logistics markets are expected to have the highest total returns at 10.9% p.a. and 10.4% p.a., respectively. Despite a recent pause, manager sentiment towards logistics has steadily improved since 2022. Logistics’ volumes are expected to increase to €50bn in 2025, up 19% from 2024 levels. At 23% of cross sector 2024 volumes, logistics realised the highest share of total volumes on record.
Office:
Office vacancy rates continued to increase in Q1 2025, even in CBD markets. CBD vacancies had previously trended down as bifurcation has remained a continuing theme sofar. However, with less new supply and an increasing number of office conversions, overall vacancy is projected to come down from its 9% peak mid-year 2025 to 7% by 2029. Signs are beginning to emerge that CBD office rental growth since 2020 is pricing out cost-conscious occupiers, with more affordable, non-CBD submarkets looking increasingly attractive in terms of value for money. The increasing post-Covid trend of office conversions is also confirmed at an individual market level, with the highest 2020-24 share of office conversion transactions recorded in Frankfurt & Madrid, as shown in the chart below. Average 2025-29 prime rental growth is expected to reach 2.8% p.a. across all 61 covered European office submarkets. Across a sample of five CBD submarkets rental growth is forecast at 3.5% p.a., which is only slightly stronger than 3.3% p.a. for the 14 non-CBD submarkets in the same cities. This might signal a broadening recovery as bifurcation diffuses. 2024 office transaction volumes remained muted, down 53% compared to their 15-year historic average. As a share of total volumes, offices represented a record low of 21% in Q1 2025. But liquidity is expected to improve as more managers believe European values will improve in sharp contrast with the US, where office values are still expected to decline. Our latest prime office forecasts show that average total returns are expected to reach 9.4% p.a. over the next five years across our 61 covered European markets. The 9.4% p.a. cross market average reflects a high of 12.7% p.a. for London City and 8.2% for London West End with no European office market expected to have a sub 8% return. In a further signal of a broadening recovery beyond prime, non-CBD submarkets with higher current income yields are expected to have a 10.4% p.a. return and outperform lower yielding CBD markets at 9.4% p.a. over the 2025-29 period.
Residential:
Despite lower mortgage rates and a recovery in lending volumes over the last year, affordability for homeowners is projected to remain challenging as 2025-29 house prices are forecast to increase by 3.5% p.a. in both the Eurozone and the UK. New supply of housing remains limited and continues to fall short of most government targets. In addition, the private-rented stock is decreasing as a result of regulations making buy-to-let investments less attractive in the UK, Netherlands and France. European prime residential market rents are projected to see 3.2% p.a. growth in 2025-29, ahead of inflation, despite most governments having tightened rental regulations over the past couple of years. Despite a 25% increase from 2023, residential investment activity remained weak in 2024 with European volumes totaling just under €40 bn. With improving financing conditions, liquidity is returning to the market, leading to some yield tightening. Due to the strong supply-demand dynamics and stable cash flows, investors’ appetite for residential remains strong. Since 2008, residential has doubled its share in total investment volumes to 21% in 2024. Based on our Mar-25 forecasts, prime residential yields will tighten from 2025 by an average of 20bps by 2029, partly reversing the 130bps yield widening since mid-2022. 2025-29 European residential total returns are expected at 7.7% p.a. driven mostly by current income (4.0% p.a.) and capital return from rental growth (3.1% p.a.), with limited capital return coming from yield compression (0.6% p.a.). Finally, our analysis of the UK single family market confirms that this sub-sector benefits from strong fundamentals as home ownership remains inaccessible for many households. This is confirmed by the rise in investments in the European residential sector.
Retail:
Despite ongoing uncertainty, real retail sales in the Eurozone are projected to grow modestly at 1.7% p.a., outpacing both 1.4% p.a. real GDP and 1.0% p.a. real disposable income growth over the 2025-29 period. In-store retail sales in Europe are expected to stabilize with an annual growth rate of around 0.6% p.a. over the next five years. This forecast reflects the projected proportion of e-commerce within total retail sales to 20% by 2029, up from 16% in 2024. Prime retail vacancy as reported by INREV has stabilized at 3% in Q2 2025, down from 4% in 2020. However, shopping center vacancy has risen while vacancy for retail warehouses and high street have declined over the past 2-3 years. After double digit declines in 2019-22, European prime rents for both shopping centres and high street retail are expected to return to about 1% annual growth in 2025-29. Manager sentiment towards retail experienced strong improvement over the last three quarters, following a prolonged slump in 2015-21. German and French retail sentiment is expected to follow the UK upward lead, similar to post-2015 downward trend. Retail investment volumes in 2024 have risen to EUR 25.4bn, reflecting an 11% increase from the weak performance in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by shopping centre transactions, which experienced a 27% increase during the period. According to our Mar-2025 forecast, core European shopping centre and high street yields are expected to tighten by 10 and 0 basis points by 2029, respectively. This is from their 2024 peak levels of 6.7% for shopping centres and 5.2% for high street retail. European prime total returns in 2025-29 are projected for shopping centres at 7.8% p.a., and high street retail at 6.0% p.a. Shopping centre returns are projected to surpass those of high street retail in most countries. Finally, if future property yield tightening becomes less certain – as government bond yields are now expected to stay higher for longer – more investors might be interested in the relative safety of European shopping centre high current income returns.
Investment principles & strategy
Since its creation in 1981, AEW has been dedicated to creating and implementing real estate investment and asset management strategies for institutional and retail investors. AEW offers investors a wide range of investment solutions across Europe, including separate accounts and co-mingled funds across core to opportunistic strategies.
Strategic corporate development
Over the next three to five years, AEW is expecting to grow the European business by launching new strategies and continuing to invest on behalf of new and existing funds and separate account mandates. In particular, the firm is expecting to raise further capital for the following current strategies*:
- EUROCORE: an open-ended, pan-European core fund targeting a diversified portfolio of institutional quality assets in major European markets. The fund is targeting a €2bn equity commitment over time.
- LOGISTIS: a pan-European logistics fund comprising a standing portfolio of >€4.8bn in Grade A assets.
- Energy Transition Partnership: acquiring strategically located real estate near large grid connections to create electric heavy goods vehicles (e-HGVs) mobility hubs, combining battery storage, truck parking and e-HGV charging.
- UK Single Family Rental: building a scalable portfolio of Single Family Rental properties focussed on the South and West of England.
- Spanish Residential: targeting build to rent, build to reposition and built to convert opportunities in areas of high demand and low supply, focusing on high sustainability standards.
- Value Add Series: new funds in both the UK and Europe focused on urban repositioning, office refurbishment, industrial & living.
* Retail and non-sophisticated investors are not eligible to invest in these funds.
Performance verification
AEW measures its performance against a number of benchmarks specific to investment strategy and style. The results of each portfolio are periodically audited by independent third parties and audited financial statements provided to clients.
Compliance statement
AEW includes (i) AEW Capital Management, L.P. and its subsidiaries and (ii) affiliated company AEW Europe and its subsidiaries. AEW Europe and AEW Capital Management, L.P. are commonly owned by Natixis Investment Managers and operate independently from each other. Total AEW AUM of $83.9 billion includes $38.8 billion in assets managed by AEW Europe and its affiliates, $4.8 billion in regulatory assets under management of AEW Capital Management, L.P., and $40.3 billion in assets for which AEW Capital Management, L.P. and its affiliates provide (i) investment management services to a fund or other vehicle that is not primarily investing in securities (e.g., real estate), (ii) non-discretionary investment advisory services (e.g., model portfolios) or (iii) fund management services that do not include providing investment advice. Staff and offices include AEW Capital Management, L.P. and AEW Europe and their respective subsidiaries.