In a world dominated by uncertainty, the recovery in the global economy continues. With the on-going vaccination of the general population and booster campaigns remaining a strategic priority, to avoid the introduction of new health restrictions that would deteriorate growth in late 2021 and early 2022, the deterioration of short-term prospects has come from China.
Although the financial risks around Chinese developer Evergrande, with its $260 billion of debt, are not likely to cause a major financial crisis in China according to specialist commentators, the weakness of real estate construction has called into question the country’s short-term economic prospects. This has been exacerbated by electricity shortages and reductions in production. Against this background, and despite the fact that growth prospects remain strong, they have been downgraded (to 5.7% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022).
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Real Estate Convictions - November 2021PDF, Size 0.96 mb