According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), transport has the highest reliance on fossil fuels of any sector, and accounted for 37% of global carbon dioxide emissions from end-use sectors in 2021. The replacement of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles with electric vehicles (EV) is therefore a core component of the transition to a more sustainable future.
In reference to S&P Global Mobility, EV sales grew by about 36% year-on-year from 2021-2022. Our view is that EV uptake will reach a ‘tipping point’ as better battery and charging technology improves useability and prices come down. As a result, we expect the EV market to grow significantly in the medium-to-long term.
This expectation is supported by research by BloombergNEF, which predicts that in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) more than half of car sales in the US – a market where EV uptake has been relatively slow – are now expected to be electric by 2030.
Overall, the bigger picture means that the industry will need to plan for significantly increased volumes. Eliminating supply chain bottlenecks and ensuring adequate growth in the production of the metals and minerals essential for EV power trains – which take energy stored in a vehicle’s battery system and supply it to the motors – will be critical.
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