The Great Moderation of the past 25 years was marked by stable economic growth, low interest rates and low inflation. This era was shattered by four pivotal changes: the severe monetary tightening by key central banks to tackle the inflation spike; worsening conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine; the rise of populism in the West; and the US–China geopolitical rivalry fragmenting global supply chains. However, these rapid changes also create opportunities as capital markets adjust to the new realities. With public equity markets in the West nearing all-time highs, the search is on for good risk-adjusted returns. The 2024 Amundi–CREATE global pension survey examines two primary areas: private markets (illiquid assets) and Asian emerging markets. Pension funds worldwide were asked their views on their allocations, plans and predictions for these alternative sources of value.

Private markets

Private markets on the up, as rates move down

74% of survey respondents currently allocate to private markets, with significant investments in the US, followed by Europe and Asia-Pacific: 49% currently have allocations of up to 15% and another 25% have above 15%. This shift towards private assets is expected to continue, with 86% of pension funds anticipating an allocation in the next three years, as the rate-cutting cycle that began in 2024 is forecasted to improve the outlook for private markets.

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