What’s new?

In our Central Macro Scenario for 2025 CMA we incorporate:

• New socio-economic paths to include higher geopolitical fragmentation
• More fragmented and delayed climate transition
• More granular assessment of AI impacts at the country level

With the world on the brink of significant structural changes, projecting the long-term macroeconomic scenario for 2025-2050 presents unique challenges. It is crucial to identify emerging trends while evaluating the acceleration of existing ones. Key factors to consider include shifts in trade relationships shaped by geopolitical developments, a more fragmented global landscape marked by rising nationalism, and major demographic changes such as declining fertility rates and a shrinking working-age population. These trends may be counterbalanced by renewed migratory flows, increased labour intensity through later retirement ages, and enhanced productivity driven by a technological revolution.

Compared to the 2024 Capital Market Assumptions (CMA), we have revised the macro long-term scenarios to factor in important expected changes in terms of socio-economic developments, the climate transition, and the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on growth.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below