“In the Iran crisis, oil is the key transmission mechanism through which tensions spill over into the global economy: a total disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is the decisive trigger that can turn an energy shock into a broader macroeconomic shock.”
- The Iran crisis pushed oil and gas prices higher, raising concerns about higher inflation and weaker growth—especially in regions that rely on energy imports.
- In the absence of a material disruption to oil infrastructure and Hormuz traffic, we regard the current episode as a temporary oil shock with only modest implication for growth and inflation.
- Aside from tactical adjustments, from a long‑term perspective it is paramount to focus on fundamentals.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below
