Gold has hit multiple record highs in 2025, recently surging past the $4,000 mark and climbing over 20% since mid-August. In our view, both cyclical and structural factors are contributing to this growth: growing unpredictability in macroeconomic and geopolitical landscapes, demographic shifts, structurally higher demand from central banks (CBs), expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a weak dollar are all supporting factors, and most recently, higher political uncertainty with the US shutdown.
Key takeaways
- The recent rally in gold prices signals more than just a market trend; it indicates, in our view, the beginning of a gradual transition from a US-centric international monetary system to a more multipolar one.
- Gold is gaining traction as a structural portfolio diversifier, and we believe that prices have the potential to reach $5,000 an ounce by the end of 2028. Supportive factors for gold prices include structural demand for diversification by global investors, geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks’ reserve diversification at a time of dollar weakness.
Looking ahead, the key question remains: how far can this rally go? While valuing gold remains complex, our models (which incorporate both macroeconomic and microeconomic fundamentals such as inflation, central bank balance sheets, and government bond yields) suggest that there is further upside potential, though limited in the short term.
For 2026, our target for gold is $4,200 an ounce. On a three-year horizon, we believe that there is more room for gold prices to rise, eventually reaching a target of $5,000 an ounce in 2028 due to a structural change in demand for the metal by investors and central banks.
You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below
