We see geopolitical risks persisting as a base-case scenario for 2025. Below we share the main upside and downside risks to our base case that investors should take into consideration.
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.