Emerging Markets: Vulnerability And Contagion Risks... Fragile Vs. Anti-Fragile Countries

This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and / or to benefit from it. 

We first analyse nine very different cases of contagion (crises and sharp declines without crisis, with different triggers, with different contagion effects) which could be identified in the emerging world over the last 40 years: i) the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980’s, ii) the Mexican crisis of 1994, iii) the Asian Crisis of 1997, iv) the Russian Crisis of 1998, v) the Brazilian crisis of 1999, vi) the Argentine crisis of 1999-2001, vii) Fed tapering of QE in 2013, viii) the “boom and burst”crisis in Chinese stock markets in 2015-2016, and ix) restrictive trade and monetary policies in the United States in 2018.

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